The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare recently released the first advance estimates for the production of major Kharif crops in the 2023-24 season, anticipating food grain production in the country to exceed 1,485 lakh metric tonnes. Notable estimates include rice production at over 1,063 lakh metric tonnes, maize production expected to reach over 224 lakh metric tonnes, and pulses (Tur, Moong, Urad) at 63.31 lakh metric tonnes. Furthermore, sugarcane production is forecasted to reach 4,347 lakh metric tonnes.
Primarily grown under rain-fed conditions in India, nearly 80% of the annual acreage and production are attributed to the Kharif season, which spans from June to October. In an effort to assess groundnut production for the Kharif-2022 season, an extensive survey was conducted across seven major groundnut-producing states during the peak harvesting period. Various teams traversed these regions, interviewing 3,000 groundnut farmers in 42 districts across these states. A summary of the findings was presented at the Annual Trade Meet of the IOPEPC in Dubai, UAE, on November 6, 2022, for the benefit of export trade stakeholders.
Despite receiving below-average monsoon rainfall, India reported an increase of approximately 200,000 hectares in Kharif (summer) crop sowing area compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, the current season estimates project a 4.5% reduction in crop production, with the country expecting to yield around 1,486 lakh tons of food grains.
It is worth noting that the rice cultivation area is expected to be around 200,000 hectares larger than the previous year’s final estimate and about 450,000 hectares more than the average rice area. Additionally, rice production estimates for the Kharif season are expected to surpass average Kharif rice production by approximately 100,000 tonnes.
The decision to implement the Yield Estimation System through Technology (YES-TECH) for precise crop estimates has been made by the Ministry of Agriculture. This technology will cover major crops like rice and wheat for the 2023-24 cropping season. The final accurate data will be available by mid-next year.
The initial production estimate for the 2023-24 Kharif season relies on an average yield from the past three years, allowing for potential changes based on actual crop estimates. It’s important to highlight that field plot limitations within the Current Estimated Experiments (CEEs) system may lead to fluctuations in output figures. As observed in the previous fiscal year, rice production estimates escalated from 1,050 lakh tons in the initial, second, third, and final advance estimates to 1,105 lakh tons.
In July, Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar and Earth Sciences Minister Kiran Rijiju introduced YES-TECH Manual Crop Estimation Technology, praised for its precision at the gram panchayat level. This technology aims to replace manual systems with technology-based predictions for accurate crop production figures.
The technology-based system, known as the Crop-Model Matrix, will assess the current production estimates for two major crops: Kharif (rice) and Rabi (wheat).