After a prolonged dry spell in December and January, northwest India is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall in February, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This positive outlook is attributed to the influence of two consecutive Western Disturbances forecasted to impact the region over the next five days.
The weather systems are expected to bring light to moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall and snowfall across Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand from January 31st to February 4th. Specific regions, such as the Kashmir Valley, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, may experience isolated heavy rainfall and snowfall on January 31st and February 1st. Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and East Rajasthan are likely to witness light to moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall, with isolated hailstorms expected in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttarakhand on January 31st and February 1st.
The IMD also predicts strong and chilly surface winds ranging from 30-40 kmph over Punjab, Haryana, and Chandigarh-Delhi on January 31st and February 1st. Additionally, Arunachal Pradesh is forecasted to experience light to moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall and snowfall from January 31st to February 6th, with isolated heavy precipitation on February 2nd. Isolated hailstorms are anticipated in Arunachal Pradesh on January 31st and February 1st, as well as in Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on January 31st and February 2nd.
The IMD issues dense fog and cold day warnings for specific regions. Dense to very dense fog conditions are expected in the morning hours over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi on February 2nd, with isolated pockets likely on February 3rd. Similar conditions are anticipated in isolated pockets of Uttar Pradesh from February 1st to February 3rd, and for a few hours in the morning over Odisha on February 1st and 2nd, as well as over north Madhya Pradesh and Bihar on February 1st. However, no Cold Day conditions are predicted over any part of the country during the next five days.
The minimum temperatures are expected to remain relatively stable across most parts of the country. The prevailing weather patterns include a persisting Western Disturbance as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies, jet stream winds over North India, and various cyclonic circulations influencing different parts of the subcontinent. Another Western Disturbance is likely to affect Northwest India from February 3rd, bringing light rainfall and snowfall to isolated places in Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, and northeast India, while mainly dry weather is expected to prevail over the rest of the country.
By Ranu Jain