The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that September will see ‘above-normal’ monsoon rainfall across most of India, continuing the trend from August. However, states including Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, and parts of Himachal Pradesh and Punjab are expected to experience extremely heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and landslides.
In August, India recorded 16% more rainfall than average, making it the fifth highest for the month since 2001 and the 29th highest since 1901. Despite this, the overall temperature for August was notably high, with the highest average minimum temperature and the fourth-highest average mean temperature on record. This anomaly is due to the uneven distribution of rainfall: northwest India received 32% more than normal (the second highest since 2001), while the southern peninsula saw only a marginal increase of about 1% above normal.
For September, while the country is anticipated to experience ‘above-normal’ rainfall overall, certain regions—such as north Bihar, northeast Uttar Pradesh, much of northeast India, extreme northwest India, and parts of the southern peninsula—may see ‘below-normal’ precipitation. The monsoon season from June to September is still expected to be classified as ‘above-normal’ as previously forecasted.
The heavy rains in August have positively impacted kharif sowing, with total acreage expected to exceed the ‘normal’ range, suggesting a potential increase in foodgrain output. Additionally, the good rainfall has ensured sufficient soil moisture and reservoir levels for the upcoming rabi (winter-sown) crops.
The formation of the La Niña phenomenon, expected by the end of September, is unlikely to influence the current monsoon season significantly, as the summer monsoon may be nearing its withdrawal phase. La Niña typically weakens the northeast (winter) monsoon in southeast India from September to November.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, noted that six low-pressure systems in August, including one deep depression and one cyclone, contributed significantly to the heavy rainfall. The usual ‘break’ (pause) in monsoon activity was absent this August, leading to one of the highest numbers of active monsoon days in recent years.
Mohapatra also indicated that above-normal maximum temperatures are likely across most of the country, except for some areas in northwest India, the southern peninsula, and parts of east-central India, where temperatures may be closer to or below normal.