It is more than two years since the Aragalaya Protests shook Sri Lanka to the core. Aragalaya means Struggle in the Sinhala language.
The imagery of people storming the Presidential Palace and hoisting the Sri Lankan national flag, amid slogans of ‘Gota Go Home’, is fresh in the minds of many, in this island nation of 23 million people. Gota is the nickname of the then President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He fled the country in the wake of the Aragalaya Protests, and, resigned afterwards.
Cut to 2024.
The Aragalaya sweeps a bearded, 55-year-old son of a labourer into power.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a self-avowed Marxist. The leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna or People’s Liberation Front and the Jathika Jana Balawegaya, an alliance of political parties and trade unions. Dissanayake was born on 24 November 1968. A.K.D., as he is popularly known, has humble origins. He went to a Government-funded school. Got a degree in physics. Worked as a tuition teacher. Sold toffee and cigarettes on trains. Became a student-leader. (He counts Che Guevara among his heroes.) Got elected to the J.V.P.’s central committee in 1997; became a lawmaker in 2000; and served as agriculture minister between 2004 and 2005 in a coalition government headed by President Chandrika Kumaratunga. Dissanayake became the leader of J.V.P. in 2014. He contested for President in 2019, when he finished third with only 3 per cent votes.
Dissanayaka’s party, the J.V.P., was formed in 1965. It led two rebellions, in 1971, and, 1987. In fact, he was a student-leader at the time of the second, armed, insurrection. This was around the time of the 1987 India – Sri Lanka Peace Accord. The two revolts left more than 80-thousand people dead. The J.V.P. has since claimed to have renounced violence. The party entered democratic politics in 1994. Dissanayake apologised for the violence unleashed by the party.
The J.V.P. was a peripheral player in Sri Lanka’s politics for the longest time. It won only four per cent of the votes in the 2020 parliamentary election. The party has only three lawmakers in the 2 hundred and 25-member legislature. But Dissanayake’s and the J.V.P.’s popularity soared in the wake of the Aragalaya Protests.
There are many firsts here. It was the first presidential election since the 2022 economic crisis. Dissanayake is Sri Lanka’s first Leftist President. Dissanayake is the first President to win the lowest number of votes. Just over 42 per cent. That led to the counting of people’s second preference votes. Consequently, it was the first time a second round of counting took place. Dissanayake is also the first political leader who does not belong to the political elite or a dynasty. Many see his win as a breath of fresh air in Sri Lankan politics. A fresh start. A new beginning. After years of political and economic tumult. Someone who can restore public faith in politics.
Dissanayake has sought to temper expectations from him though. He says he does not have a magic solution to problems. He says he is as common a citizen as any other Sri Lankan, with strengths and limitations. There are things he knows and things he doesn’t. And he says that his responsibility is to be part of a collective effort to end this crisis.
“There is one dream our people see every new day the sun rises. That is ‘tomorrow will be better than today!’ However, you and I have both learned for many years that this is just a dream. Opportunism, the greed for power, and authoritarianism have hindered our country’s progress. But now we have our final opportunity which cannot be missed. Let us unite to create a thriving and beautiful country that embraces diversity,” he says.
Dissanayake retains the common touch. He has ordered the police to re-open two roads – the Sir Baron Jayathilake Mawatha and Janadhipathi Mawatha, near the President’s House, to the public. He has increased the fertiliser subsidy for paddy farmers from 50 dollars to 84 dollars with the effect from 1 October, for the September 2024 to March 2025 period. And he has promised to cut taxes, fight corruption and reduce the cost of living.
In a televised address on 25 September, Dissanayake spoke about his plans for resuming talks with the International Monetary Fund to advance Sri Lanka’s 2.9 billion-dollar bailout programme. Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy in 2022. It suspended repayments on 83 billion dollars in domestic and foreign loans. A severe shortfall of dollars spun the country’s economy into a deep financial crisis. The foreign-exchange crisis led to a shortage of essential commodities such as food, medicine, fuel and cooking gas. Inflation soared, to a high of 70 per cent in September 2022.
Bhavani Fonseka, a lawyer and human rights activist, says that the economic crisis and what led to the people’s movement are key indicators that people wanted a change. “That message was very much articulated in 2022 in wanting to see a change in political culture, culture which kind of saw high corruption and nepotism. And that seems to have been captured in the messages and the manifestos of the N.P.P. (National People’s Power) and the Anura Kumara Disssanayake campaign slogans. So really, it’s kind of tapping into what people were feeling in 2022, and really capturing the people’s imagination that change is possible with this new formation that is the N.P.P.”
Dissanayake has softened some of his policies in the past few years. For instance, his N.P.P. alliance espouses a middle ground. He believes in an open economy, and, is not totally opposed to privatisation. He has vowed to press ahead with the I.M.F. rescue-package, but, modify its terms in order to deliver tax-cuts to his people.
Fonseka says, “(The) international community is looking to this new president as to how he governs, what is his foreign policy. But considering the economic crisis, considering we are dependent on international assistance, I can’t see the N.P.P. and the president being able to take sides. So, he will be taking a very pragmatic approach, at least for the next couple of months. How things play out in 2025 and beyond is to be seen. But I think at the most immediate he is going to take a very practical approach.”
Dissanayake’s priorities are to renegotiate the bailout agreement with the I.M.F. and make austerity measures more bearable for the poor. He faces a number of key challenges, though. First and foremost, economy and growth. Dissanayake will have to ensure the economy returns to sustainable and inclusive growth. He will have to re-assure local and international markets. He has to attract investors. He also has to help a quarter of Sri Lanka’s 23 million population climb out of poverty. Then there are the issues of I.M.F. programme and taxation. Dissanayake has to hold discussions with the I.M.F to reduce taxes and free up public revenue for tax relief and investment.
But questions remain.
— Why is he tight-lipped about his stance on key issues concerning the ethnic Tamil population in the North and East?
— Does he support the implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution?
— The 13th Amendment flows from the India – Sri Lanka Peace Accord of 1987. Among other things, it calls for devolution of police and land powers to the Tamil minority.
— Or will he allow his predominantly Sinhala political base to get the better of him?
— What will be his Government’s foreign policy be towards India?
— And will he allow his ideological moorings to shore up ties with China?
India is Sri Lanka’s biggest neighbor. China is its largest bilateral creditor. Both India and China are competing for influence in Sri Lanka. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi says he looks forward to working closely with Dissanayake. Dissanayake visited India in February and held talks with India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. Dissanayake has sought to allay concerns about the J.V.P.’s historical anti-West and anti-India stance. He used his inauguration speech to reject power-divisions in the world, and, pledged to work with all other countries for the benefit of his own.
“Our country needs international support. We expect that whatever the divisions in the international community to deal with countries, we get the best deal. We are not a state that needs to be isolated in the world. We are a nation that must go forward hand in hand with the international community. We will not hesitate to take decisions to achieve this,” says Dissanayake.
Analysts say that Sri Lanka and Dissanayake, can ignore India only at their own peril. The logic of interdependence will ensure that the ties do not go off-kilter. India was quick to bail Sri Lanka out with billions of dollars is assistance. New Delhi’s Neighbourhood First Policy has ensured that India is the first responder in times of crises. India says that it does not expect all its neighbours to necessarily adhere to what India considers as being better for them. In the real world, countries make their own choices, and, they find a way to adjust and work together.
Dissanayake has called a snap, parliamentary, election on 14 November. He hopes to ride the wave of approval, and, consolidate power in the Parliament. The lack of numbers in Parliament has meant that Dissanayake has not been able to name a proper Cabinet. He named Prof. Harini Amarasuriya as Prime Minister with five portfolios.
Vijitha Herath was given charge of six ministries, including foreign affairs. And Dissanayake kept key ministries, such as, finance, defence and energy for himself. Despite his executive powers as the President, fulfilling his pro-poor campaign promises of reducing taxes and freeing-up public revenue for tax-relief and investment will prove difficult without backing from Parliament.
That is not all. Passing a budget will be hard without support in Parliament. But, there’s a catch. If the snap election throws up a verdict similar to the presidential poll, then Sri Lanka will have a co-habitation government, with the President and Prime Minister from different parties. He needs a minimum of 113 seats to gain power in Parliament. For which he will have enlist the support of the minorities, including Tamils.
“I’m cautiously optimistic that the president and those around him have heard the loud calls of the people. The call for a system change. Whether they are able to deliver considering the multiple challenges before them is the big question,” says Fonseka.
President Dissanayake has his task cut out for him. Can he deliver? Will he be able to balance ideological compulsions, domestic reforms, and, geopolitical pulls and pressures? We will know in the months ahead.
By: Ramesh Ramachandran (Senior Consulting Editor and presenter with D.D. India)