Cracks are emerging in the fragile alliance that catapulted 84-year-old Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus to power. Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party play ball? And will the Army sit idly by?
The Interim Government of Bangladesh completed a hundred days on 15 November. No grand celebrations were held. No big speeches were made on the occasion. An uneasy calm prevails in the country’s capital Dhaka, which saw a pitched battle between the police and protesters in the months leading up to the overthrow of the Government of the day.
The so-called Revolution is over, but, protests are taking place more than ever in Dhaka. People are not exactly despondent but they’re restless and impatient. Non-stop demonstrations have been reported from near the Secretariat Building – the administrative nerve centre of Bangladesh’s Government. If Government Land Office employees want higher pay and benefits, some want protections for Sufi religious shrines. Others such as garment workers hold a protest over unpaid wages. Elseqhere in Dhaka, protesters hold a torch procession on 31 October to demand better treatment of minorities in the country following a sedition charge against 19 people. The procession was led by the Bangladesh United Minority Alliance after the 19 were said to have disrespected Bangladesh’s national flag in the south-eastern city of Chittagong. The protesters called for the withdrawal of the charges against the 19, who included Chinmoy Krishna Das Brahmachari, the divisional organising secretary of the International Society for Krishna Consciousness, popularly known by its acronym Iskcon, which is a Hindu religious movement. U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk has called for minority protection and a national process of truth and healing.
Recent developments
Here’s a quick recap of all that happened since the 5 August ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, followed by the installation of an Interim Government led by the Nobel Laureate, Prof. Muhammad Yunus, on 8 August.
In August, the U.N. calls for a peaceful and democratic transition. It urges all parties to respect human rights and ensure transparency and accountability. At the request of the interim government, the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights establishes a fact-finding mission to analyse root causes and provide concrete recommendations on the next steps Bangladesh should take to address the past violations and to ensure non-recurrence.
In September, protests continue, with demonstrators demanding accountability for the violent suppression of earlier protests.
In October, the Interim Government faces legal and political challenges, including debates about its legitimacy and the need for Constitutional reforms. The International Crimes Tribunal – which was established under Bangladesh law to try and punish any individual or group of individuals responsible for committing Crimes against Humanity or Genocide in Bangladesh – issues arrest warrants for Sheikh Hasina and more than 40 others for their alleged roles in massacres and killings that took place during the protests in July and August. Mahfuj Alam, the Special Assistant to the Interim Government’s Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, announces that family members of the “martyred” Anti-Discrimination Student Movement would receive 30 lakh Taka, that is, about 88-thousand dollars.
And, in November, the U.N. again reminds Dhaka of the importance of a peaceful transition and the rule of law.
100 days of Yunus
A Belgium-based N.G.O., International Crisis Group, released a report titled “A New Era in Bangladesh? The First Hundred Days of Reform” in which it says that the Bangladesh Government, led by Yunus should balance demands for justice with the need for reconciliation, staying within the bounds of the Constitution to mitigate the danger of its decisions being invalidated later.
It says that the Government, which is expected to remain in office for another year or longer, should seek to hold fresh elections under a reformed polling system within a realistic timeframe, which should not extend beyond 18 months.
The report cautions that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Bangladesh to improve governance and put checks and balances in place that would stop another autocratic regime from emerging.
It warns that if the Interim Government falters, the country could revert to the status quo ante, or, worse, enter a period of military rule.
The message is clear: Yunus should avoid staying in power for too long. He should build a consensus among political parties because experience and history alike suggest that the longer an Interim Government remains in power, the larger the doubts about its legitimacy grows. Therefore, managing, let alone meeting, public expectation will be extremely challenging for the Government.
Cracks emerging
Already, the fissures are out in the open. Most noticeably, between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Yunus-led Interim Government. The B.N.P. wants an early election but the Interim Government is not willing to play ball.
Thousands of B.N.P. supporters rallied in Dhaka on 8 November demanding the holding of an election. The friends turned frenemies are no longer singing from the same hymn sheet, especially because it was the Interim Government that released B.N.P. chief Khaleda Zia from house arrest and acquitted her of corruption charges. The B.N.P. now fears that the Yunus-led Interim Government is in no mood to hold an election and that it wants to extend its rule in perpetuity. The B.N.P. wants to avoid a repeat of the past, when an Army-controlled Caretaker Government in 2006 stayed beyond its mandated three months and delayed the election by about two years, only to bring Sheikh Hasina back to power.
Things have come to such a pass that the B.N.P. is openly opposing the Interim Government’s proposal to ban its arch-rival, the Awami League – whom it ousted in the recent protests. The B.N.P. also suspects that the Interim Government might toy with the idea of reviving the Minus-Two Formula of yore, which was invoked by some caretaker governments of the past to keep the two Begums away –Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia.
The B.N.P. is suspicious of the motives of student leaders, academics and others who want to delegitimise the party for their vested interests. The B.N.P. has time and again voiced its frustration over the lack of a “roadmap” for the transition to democracy. Its Secretary-General, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, has called on the Interim Government to open talks with politicians, and, hold an election within a “reasonable” time. Would he be O.K. if an election was held after two or three years? “I don’t think people will accept that,” he retorts.
Thomas Kean, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, says that cracks are emerging in the fragile alliance that pushed Yunus into power. He says that for now, Yunus and his colleagues have widespread support, but popular expectations are double-edged.
Yunus appeals
For his part, Yunus has begged for the country’s patience to prepare for the much-awaited election. “I am not sure how much reform we will be able to make. But I promise you, if you give us the opportunity, we will complete some mandatory reforms and then go for the highly sought-after election we all are looking for. I would request you to keep patience till then. We want to create an exemplary electoral system that can be followed for years. It will save our country from annual political crises. To ensure these, I am asking for the necessary time from you,” he says in a televised address to the nation.
The Government has since appointed a new chief election commissioner and four other commissioners. Yunus says that a road map for the next election would be unveiled once electoral reforms are completed but he won’t give a timeframe for the election.
Bangladesh’s Constitutional Reform Commission has to submit its recommendations to the Government by 31 December. Its aim is to draft a new Constitution. Five other Reform Commissions are likely to submit their reports by the end of December, too.
Chequered history
Bangladesh has long struggled with political instability and military influence. In its 53 years of independence, the country has faced 29 attempted military coups, starting with the first in 1975, just four years after independence.
Bangladesh appears to be heading toward not only a political reset but also a Constitutional overhaul. The country’s Attorney General, Mohammed Asaduzzaman, has suggested removing the world “secular” from the Constitution, citing the fact that 90 per cent of Bangladesh’s population follows Islam.
So, are the fears of Bangladesh becoming an Islamic state genuine?
How will the proposed changes to the Constitution impact the country’s minorities?
Will Hindus be safe?
Will the Interim Government stay true to its promise of holding an election?
And will the Military continue to watch from the sidelines or take matters into its own hands?
There are no easy answers to these questions.
How much power the Bangladesh Army is willing to relinquish in favour of the Yunus-led Interim Government will be critical to ensuring a peaceful, democratic transition.
As things stand now, an early election is not likely. Yunus has said that the timing of the election is a political decision and that people will decide how long this Interim Government will remain in power.
Bangladesh stands at a familiar crossroads once again.
While many celebrate what they call a “Third Independence”, others remain cautiously optimistic, wary of the recurring sounds of military boots echoing through the power corridors of Dhaka.
By: Ramesh Ramachandran (DD India)