China’s internet censors have removed a viral speech by Gao Shanwen, a prominent economist, after his critical remarks on youth unemployment and the country’s economic challenges gained widespread attention. Gao, the chief economist at SDIC Securities, warned that the lack of opportunities for young people was hindering economic growth, which he argued had been overstated in recent years.
Speaking at an investor conference in Shenzhen, Gao highlighted the financial struggles of young people in China, adding that instead of pursuing promising careers or contributing to the economy, many are “turning off the lights and eating noodles,” a phrase used to describe financial distress caused by poor investments. Gao’s comments contradicted the Chinese Communist Party’s narrative, pushed under Xi Jinping’s leadership, which portrays young people’s consumption as a key driver of post-lockdown economic recovery.
However, Gao’s speech, which was shared on the “Economist Book Club” WeChat account, was swiftly removed after receiving complaints for violating platform regulations. His remarks were seen as a challenge to the official narrative of economic optimism, particularly as youth unemployment continues to soar. Despite the portrayal of economic recovery in state media, many workers, both white-collar and blue-collar, have shared their financial struggles with Radio Free Asia, citing stagnant wages and rising unemployment.
Gao further said that regions with younger populations had shown weaker economic performance since the end of the zero-COVID policy in December 2022, compared to regions with older populations. He pointed to recent data showing slower consumption growth in younger populations and faster growth in older demographics. He summed up the situation as: “vibrant older people, lifeless young people, and middle-aged people in despair.”
The economist also criticized the official GDP growth figures, suggesting that they likely do not reflect China’s true economic situation. Gao argued that if China’s economic model followed the patterns of countries that had suffered similar property crashes, the economy should have contracted by at least 2 to 3 percent annually over the past three years. Instead, official figures showed only a minor slowdown of 0.2 percent.
Gao said that GDP growth had been overestimated by around 3 percentage points annually, resulting in a cumulative 10 percent discrepancy, which he equated to the loss of 47 million jobs in urban areas. He added that while older generations had pensions to rely on, young people were contributing little to the economy, with many struggling to secure stable jobs or accepting low-wage, unfulfilling work.
In his analysis, Gao said that other economies typically take about nine years to recover from a property bubble collapse without government assistance, but only 3-4 years with adequate support. He called for further interest rate cuts and tempered expectations for future economic growth. These warnings come as China’s leaders prepare for a two-day Central Economic Work Conference, starting December 11, to discuss economic development and stimulus plans for 2025.
(Inputs from ANI)