The short answer is: We will know after 20 January. That’s when he officially takes over as the U.S. President. Trump met the TikTok C.E.O. on 17 December. And this is what he had to say afterwards: “We’ll take a look at TikTok. You know, I have a warm spot in my heart for TikTok because I won youth by 34 points. And there are those that say that TikTok has something to do with it.”
Trump seems to have had a change of heart since his first term in office because in August 2020 it was Trump himself who’d sought to ban TikTok in the first place! Although he has raised concerns about TikTok’s links to China as part of his broader anti-China agenda, some believe that what happened at one of his campaign rallies in June 2020 had got something to do with it. C.N.N. reported at the time that a co-ordinated effort was underway on TikTok in the days leading up to Trump’s rally, encouraging people to register online for the free event and not show up. So, hordes of anti-Trump campaigners registered seats for his speech but did not turn up, and rendered it a colossal failure but the prank proved successful! ‘
Cut to 2024. Trump wins the presidential election and voila! now he believes that TikTok actually helped him win. TikTok is popular with 1 hundred and 70 million people in the U.S. It remains smaller than Instagram and Facebook but it’s growing faster and trends younger. No wonder then that Joe Biden joined TikTok in February 2024, followed by Trump four months later. The Biden campaign joined TikTok despite the app being banned on most U.S. Government devices over security concerns. And Trump joined TikTok in spite of pushing unsuccessfully to ban the app from the U.S. by executive order.
TikTok is a money-spinner. A user can earn anywhere, on an average, from 15 thousand dollars to 2 hundred thousand dollars per year by producing and sharing content on the app. TikTok has created a new generation of influencers with millions of followers but the impending ban has left many teary-eyed.
If Trump decides to save TikTok, it will reinforce the popular belief that he hates Facebook more than TikTok. Trump has called Facebook an enemy. He believes Facebook cost him a win in the 2020 election. A ban on TikTok benefits Facebook. So he wouldn’t want to do anything that will help Facebook. Trump told U.S. T.V. channel C.N.B.C. — “The thing I don’t like is that without TikTok, you can make Facebook bigger, and I consider Facebook to be an enemy of the people, along with a lot of the media”. Also, Facebook imposed a two-year ban on Trump following the January 2021 riots in Washington, D.C. Furthermore, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerburg donated 400 million dollars to two non-profit organisations that led to holding of elections during the COVID-19 lockdown. Trump went on to say — “I think Facebook has been very dishonest. I think Facebook has been very bad for our country, especially when it comes to elections”.
TikTok first caused alarm in the U.S. in September 2019, when The Washington Post newspaper reported a lack of content related to the Hong Kong Protest which was surging on all social media platforms. The Chinese-based app claimed that it was because the app was for entertainment purposes and not political reasons. On 16 December 2019, the U.S. Defence Department published security risks associated with TikTok. The same month, the U.S. Army followed by the U.S. Navy stopped using TikTok on Government-owned devices. In 2022, U.S. website Buzzfeed reported that ByteDance employees in China allegedly accessed non-public information from TikTok. In March 2023, the TikTok C.E.O. was grilled by U.S. lawmakers. In April 2024, U.S. lawmakers advanced a Bill that compelled TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, to divest or face a ban. It passed with wide margins in both Houses of the U.S. legislature.
To be considered a qualified divestiture, the U.S. President must determine TikTok is no longer controlled by and would have no operational relationship with a Chinese entity. When Biden signed the Bill in April, a 2 hundred and 70-day clock started. That clock ends on 19 January but the process could be extended by court review. On 18 December, the U.S. top court decided to hear a bid by TikTok to block a law intended to force the sale of the short-video app by 19 January or face a ban on national security grounds. The court did not immediately act on an emergency request by TikTok and ByteDance, as well as by some of its users who post content on the social media platform, for an injunction to halt the looming ban, opting instead to hear arguments on the matter on 10 January. Trump becomes president on 20 January, the day after the U.S. law indicates a ban would start. If Biden certifies a path to a qualified divestiture has been identified, there is evidence of significant progress towards a sale, and, there are legally binding agreements in place, Biden can authorise an additional 90 days for any deal to be finalised. The additional time would throw the final decision to Trump. So Trump could help TikTok by providing an extension at the very least. But if the U.S. top court does not halt the law before it takes effect, it’s not clear how Trump, once in office, would be able to affect the matter. TikTok, in court papers, raised the possibility that the new Government would pause enforcement or seek to mitigate its potential consequences, although at least one lawmaker has said that Trump cannot ignore the TikTok law.
The dispute comes at a time of growing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Biden placed new restrictions on the Chinese chip industry. China responded with a ban on exports of gallium, germanium and antimony — metals which are used in making high-tech microchips, to the U.S. Trump has kept up the U.S. rhetoric on China. He says he wants to impose tariffs on all imports from China as soon as he takes office. Also, Trump’s Cabinet comprises China haws, including, but not limited to, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. All of which add up to shed a very ambiguous light on the future of TikTok in the U.S. Few are willing to place bets on what Trump will do.
As for the Chinese Government, it has a list of technologies that would need Chinese Government approval before they are exported. Experts said that TikTok’s recommendation algorithm would fall under the list, making divestment difficult for ByteDance. As for implications, an unimpeded ban on TikTok could open the door to a future crackdown on other foreign-owned apps. In 2020, Trump had also tried to ban WeChat, owned by Chinese company Tencent, but was blocked by the courts. For now, all eyes are on the Conservative-dominated U.S. top court. Which, by the way, is not in the only organ of the U.S. Government where the Republicans hold sway. There’s also the lower House of legislature, the upper House of legislature and then, of course, the Presidency. It’s what is known in Washington, D.C. as a governing trifecta — when the President’s party also controls the legislature. So, as they say, watch this space.