India is on track to become the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2025, overtaking Japan, according to the latest World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The report estimates India’s nominal GDP will reach 4,187.02 billion dollars next year, marginally ahead of Japan’s 4,186.43 billion dollars.
The IMF forecasts that India will continue to be the fastest-growing major economy, maintaining a growth rate above 6 per cent over the next two years. In contrast, Japan is expected to see muted growth of just 0.6 per cent in both 2025 and 2026, as the global trade slowdown weighs on its export-driven economy.
India’s strong economic momentum is likely to propel it further up the global rankings. By 2028, the country’s GDP is projected to rise to 5,584.48 billion dollars, placing it ahead of Germany and making it the third-largest economy globally.
Germany, currently the fourth-largest, is expected to be among the worst affected European economies due to ongoing trade tensions. The IMF projects zero growth for Germany in 2025, followed by a modest recovery of 0.9 per cent in 2026. Its GDP is estimated to reach 5,251.93 billion dollars by 2028.
The United States will retain its position as the world’s largest economy, with a projected GDP of 30,507.22 billion dollars in 2025. China, the second-largest, is expected to record a GDP of 19,231.71 billion dollars.
The IMF notes that the US economy, having initiated a wave of global tariffs, is showing signs of a slowdown. Growth is forecast to dip to 1.8 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent in 2026.
The Euro Area is also likely to witness sluggish growth, with an expected expansion of just 0.8 per cent in 2025, picking up slightly to 1.2 per cent in 2026. France is projected to grow at 0.6 per cent and 1 per cent in the next two years, respectively.
Spain is expected to outperform its peers with a 2.5 per cent growth rate in 2025, although this is likely to ease to 1.8 per cent in 2026. The United Kingdom is forecast to grow at 1.1 per cent and 1.4 per cent during the same period.
—IANS