The combined GDP in current prices of India, Japan, Russia, and China, in 2025 IMF figures, amounts to USD 29.69 trillion. It accounts for approximately 26% of the global economy. Again, quoting IMF figures, the combined population of these four countries is 3.13 billion, which is roughly 39% of the world’s population.
With the lion’s share of the world’s GDP and a significant population base, these four countries make for a vast domestic and international market. According to estimates, the combined domestic market of these four countries, based on the latest final consumption expenditure from the World Bank dataset, in current USD terms, amounts to USD 17.82 trillion, which is 21.6% of the whole world’s combined final consumption expenditure.
These are big numbers for a sustained economic output.
The India Factor
India, the fastest-growing major economy, has maintained this growth rhythm for years and is soon expected to become the third-largest economy globally in nominal GDP terms. The country is already the third-largest economy globally in PPP terms and is expected to cross the United States to become the second-largest by 2038 (in PPP terms), according to a recent EY assessment.
The country, with a current GDP of USD 4.19 trillion in current USD terms (according to the IMF), and a broad market base on an upward growth trajectory, with a current USD 2.80 trillion final consumption expenditure base (according to the World Bank) and growing, is an economy the world is looking for.
India is the world’s youngest nation demographically among the major economies. That adds a significant age advantage that the country will have with its demographic base in the long run. According to the United Nations dataset (the World Population Prospects 2024), by 2100, the global population is expected to rise to 10.2 billion. India, currently the most populous nation, is expected to reach its peak population of 1.69 billion in 2054. Projected to decline after that, the country will still be the world’s most populous nation, with 1.5 billion individuals by the year 2100.
On the other hand, China, currently the second most populous nation with 1.4 billion individuals, is expected to see a massive decline, with its year-2100 population expected to reduce to 633 million individuals. The country is expected to see a population loss of 204 million people, the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 in the world, followed by Japan and Russia. Japan is expected to experience a population loss of 21 million people, while Russia is projected to see its population decline by 10 million during the same period.
The combination—a big, young market that is also the fastest growing one—with India expected to cross the United States to become the second-largest economy globally in the long run, as per different economic projections—makes India the demand engine not just for Japan, Russia, and China, but for other countries and multinational corporations as well.
A country with an increasing GDP means a rising income level for its population. This population base, being the largest in the world, means a growing market that no one would wish to ignore. India’s consumption depth provides a stabilising centre of gravity for supply chains and investments anchored on domestic demand with one of the largest middle-class populations in the world.
Japan, Russia, and China
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Japan on 29 and 30 August for the 15th Japan-India Annual Summit, his first standalone visit to the country in nearly seven years. After that, PM Modi’s next scheduled visit was to China (31 August to 1 September) to participate in the 25th meeting of the Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Council (SCO) in Tianjin, China, at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. The China visit also included bilateral talks with China and Russia. The Prime Minister has called the outcome of the visits to both countries productive.
China has been one of India’s largest trade partners, while the country enjoys close and friendly relations with Japan and Russia. A data-driven analysis of these four countries reveals some interesting and vital facts.
Japan: Bilateral trade between India and Japan reached USD 25.15 billion in the 2024-25 financial year, according to the Indian Embassy in Japan. India accounts for 1.4% of Japan’s total trade, while Japan makes up 2.1% of India’s global trade. Bilateral trade has grown from USD 15.33 billion in 2020−21 to USD 25.15 billion in the 2024-25 financial year, a clear upward trend.
On the investment front, Japanese FDI in India was USD 3.1 billion in 2023-24 and USD 2.5 billion in 2024-25, resulting in cumulative inflows since 2000 totalling USD 44.4 billion. The JBIC 2024 survey ranked India as the top medium-term investment destination for the 15th consecutive year, with 58.7% of votes in favour of the country. India was also ranked the most promising country for the next 10 years. Approximately 1,400 Japanese companies are registered in India, with half of them being manufacturing firms. Conversely, 100 Indian companies have a business presence in Japan.
China: The total bilateral trade between India and China in 2024-25 was USD 127.71 billion, according to the Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India. In a decade, trade has leapt from USD 72.37 billion in 2014-15 to nearly USD 128 billion in 2024-25.
Between 2015 and 2023, cumulative Chinese FDI in India was USD 3.2 billion, while Indian FDI in China stood at USD 2.5 billion since 2000. With the trade deficit in China’s favour and a low investment scenario, it provides a concrete opportunity for both India and China to further advance their commercial ties, to further expand bilateral trade and investment ties, with India’s increased export prospects and market access, balancing the trade ties and reducing the trade deficit, which both countries are looking to address.
The Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, during a special briefing on the Prime Minister’s visit to China and his bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, highlighted, “Both leaders underlined the need once again to proceed from a political and strategic direction to reduce their bilateral trade deficit, facilitate bilateral trade and investment ties in both directions, and increase policy transparency and predictability.”
Russia: According to data from the Indian Embassy in Moscow, bilateral trade between India and Russia reached USD 68.7 billion in the 2024-25 financial year, with Indian exports at USD 4.9 billion and imports—primarily oil and gas—at USD 63.8 billion, ensuring affordable supplies to benefit ordinary Indians. The trade deficit, largely in Russia’s favour, is mainly due to oil purchases, and it needs rebalancing and further trade diversification.
Minister of External Affairs of India, S. Jaishankar, while addressing the India-Russia Business Forum on 20 August, said, “Friends, that India and Russia have nurtured one of the steadiest relationships between major nations in current times is now widely recognised. However, that did not automatically translate into significant economic cooperation. Our trade basket remains limited and, until recently, so did our trade volume. It may have grown in recent years, but then, so too has the trade deficit. Both the diversification and balancing of trade now urgently mandate more strenuous efforts on our part. At the end of the day, they are essential not just to reach higher trade targets but even to sustain the existing levels.”
According to the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, both countries have set a target of increasing bilateral investment to USD 50 billion by 2025. Additionally, India and Russia aim to increase bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030.