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September 14, 2025 11:15 AM IST

Israel’s new strategy for a new Middle East

Netanyahu goes it alone, goes for the kill in Qatar and Yemen in a bid to arrange the final piece of the jigsaw by eliminating threats from Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis, and destroying the Axis of Resistance led by Iran

Two recent developments could reshape the power-dynamics in West Asia, or the Middle East, as some would like to call it. One — Israel’s daring airstrike on Hamas leaders in Qatar. And two — a bold shift in Israel’s strategy against the Houthis in Yemen.

No, these are not isolated events. They are pieces of a larger puzzle — one where Israel is aggressively pursuing, what some call, a “New Middle East,” free from the threats that have haunted it for decades.

It’s been nearly two years since the 7th October 2023 Hamas attacks in Israel, which killed more than 1,200 hundred people — mostly civilians. More than 200 were taken hostage. The attacks shattered the fragile calm, and ignited a war in Gaza, which has claimed more than 64,000 Palestinian lives. Women and children make up around half the dead. Israel responded by vowing to dismantle the so-called Axis of Resistance led by Iran — which comprises Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthis in Yemen. It has bombed four capitals — in Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Yemen — and now a fifth — in Qatar. It goes to show just how far Israel is willing to go.

On 9th September, explosions rocked Qatar’s capital Doha. As part of an operation codenamed “Summit of Fire”, Israeli jets dropped precision munitions on a residential compound in the upscale West Bay Lagoon area. The target was a meeting of top Hamas leaders, including Khalil al-Hayya, the group’s exiled Gaza chief and lead negotiator for ceasefire talks. A lot of planning would have gone into the execution of these strikes. Israel knew that the Hamas leaders were in Doha discussing a U.S.-sponsored ceasefire-proposal. So, the Israeli intelligence would have been tracking the Hamas delegation for weeks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz greenlit the operation just hours after Hamas fighters carried out a deadly attack in Jerusalem on 8th September, in which six Israelis were killed. The jets took off from bases in Israel, flew low to evade radar, and struck within seconds — all 10 bombs hitting their mark.

Israel called it a precise strike but, apparently, it missed the intended targets and killed six others instead — al-Hayya’s son, his office manager, three other Hamas affiliates, and a Qatari security officer. An unspecified number of civilians were injured, too. After all, the neighbourhood is full of expat families and embassies. Incidentally, the attack-site is located barely two kilometres from the hotel where U.S. President Donald Trump stayed, when he visited Qatar in the month of May. Was the operation successful? That’s a question which even Trump asked Netanyahu.

Netanyahu’s answer, according to The Wall Street Journal, was “I don’t know”. But Hamas claims that its senior leaders, including al-Hayya, survived the Israeli strikes. The group called it a failed assassination. For his part, Netanyahu took full responsibility for the strikes. He said that it was entirely an Israeli operation. He justified it by saying that the strikes were aimed at those who were behind the 7 October 2023 massacre. Israel accuses al-Hayya, who took over after Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran last year, of stalling the ceasefire talks and prolonging the war. The Israeli might have missed the target but they delivered the message loud and clear — That Hamas’ political wing, once untouchable in Doha, is not safe anywhere. The psychological blow of Israel hitting the heart of Hamas’s command structure abroad is massive — and of another order of magnitude. Netanyahu said that the days are over when terror leaders can enjoy immunity of any kind. “I won’t allow that kind of immunity to exist,” he thundered.

The backlash was swift. Qatar called it a cowardly act and a violation of its sovereignty. Now, Qatar’s predicament is understandable. It is a U.S. security partner, a major non-NATO ally, and home to the largest U.S. military base in West Asia. And it is heavily involved in the Gaza ceasefire talks. Even the U.S., under Trump, expressed rare disapproval. Trump said: “Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a sovereign nation and close ally of the United States that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker peace, does not advance Israel or America’s goals.” But he was quick to add that “eliminating Hamas, who have profited off the misery of those living in Gaza, is a worthy goal”.

Trump said that he was notified of the attack and that his special envoy, in turn, had informed Qatar. But, by then, the Israeli jets were already in the air; it was too late to stop it. Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Egypt, Turkiye, and the U.N. — all condemned it as a breach of international law. The United Arab Emirates, which normalised its relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords of 2020, called it blatant and cowardly.

Israel is no stranger to targeted killings. Its spy agency Mossad has honed it into an art form! Remember Operation Wrath of God after the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre? Mossad hunted Black September terrorists across Europe and West Asia, assassinating 11 of them over two decades, though a botched hit in Norway killed an innocent waiter. In 1988, Israel killed Palestine Liberation Organisation’s No. 2 leader — Khalil al-Wazir — in Tunisia; Al-Wazir was a top aide of Yasser Arafat. Fast-forward to 2010; an Israeli hit on Hamas’ arms chief Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in a Dubai hotel was caught on C.C.T.V. Then there is the 2020 remote-gun assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. And the pager explosions of 2024 that maimed thousands of Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon, followed by the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike in Beirut.

The Qatar strikes should, therefore, be seen as the latest in a series of the bold and extra-territorial operations carried out by Israel. But, and this is an important but, unlike past operations in hostile turfs such as Iran or Syria, the strikes in Qatar hit a U.S. ally’s capital-city. To that extent, it is unprecedented. The Bloomberg news agency reported that the Qatar bombing shows Israel’s belief that strength will win out. It said that many Israelis, especially those leading and supporting the Netanyahu Government, believe that peace will only come from strength, and that defeating Hamas, its affiliates and their Iranian sponsor is the way to do it.

The Jerusalem Post said something similar: It quoted Dan Diker, the president of the Jerusalem Centre for Public Affairs, as saying that the Qatar strikes were a declaration that the rules of engagement have changed. The traditional Western approach created, what Diker called, a false assumption — That Israel wouldn’t dare attack Hamas leadership on Qatari soil because it assumed that the Americans would prevent it. This assumption became Hamas’s shield, allowing them to operate with impunity while their foot soldiers died in Gaza tunnels.

Reckless escalation or justice for 7th October — either way, Israel has, at various times in its history, opted to go it alone — even against U.S. wishes. Rather than seeking Western approval for each escalation, Israel is demonstrating that it will act unilaterally to protect its interests.The Jerusalem Post said that the choice to strike in Qatar specifically sends multiple messages. First, it ends the fiction that Hamas’s political wing operates separately from its military operations.

Second, it challenges Qatar’s double game of positioning itself as a mediator while providing sanctuary to terror leadership. And third, it demonstrates that geographical distance no longer provides immunity. If Israel can strike in Doha, no Hamas leader anywhere can assume safety based on their location’s diplomatic sensitivity. And the world does not need reminding that Israel has already decimated the Hamas leadership in Gaza and Hezbollah’s in Lebanon.

So, the Qatar strikes fit a pattern of decapitation to break the Axis led by Iran, which comprises Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis . And that brings one to Yemen, where Israel’s strategy against the Iran-backed rebels who control Yemen’s north, is evolving even more dramatically. For months, the Houthis have fired missiles at Israel and disrupted Red Sea shipping in solidarity with Gaza. In March 2025, the U.S. launched a military campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen. The operation — codenamed Rough Rider — ended on 6th May. It remains the largest U.S. military operation in West Asia during Trump’s second term in office. Israel, too, has carried out similar strikes targeting Yemen’s infrastructure such as ports and power-plants. But Israel is changing tack. Now, its strategy is to assassinate Houthi leaders.

On 28th August, Israeli jets struck a Houthi meeting in Sanaa, killing Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi, nine ministers and two top officials — 12 in all. Al-Rahawi, a symbolic figurehead, was the highest-profile kill yet — marking Israel’s shift from degrading capabilities to eliminating command.

Why the change? Well, for one, destroying Yemen’s infrastructure didn’t really deter the Houthis. Case in point — The Houthis withstood Saudi Arabia-led bombings for years. But,assassinations sow chaos and signal that no one’s safe. Gaza and Lebanon are good examples. Israel decimated Hamas’ underground tunnels, killing its leaders. And Hezbollah lost Nasrallah and thousands of rockets, forcing it to agree to a ceasefire. Now, the third “H” — Houthis — are in Israel’s cross-hairs. It’s the last piece of Iran’s proxy puzzle. This ties into Israel’s grand vision of a New Middle East. Israel has already ensured that Bashar al-Assad’s fall in Syria cuts Iran’s land bridge. By neutralising the last of the three Hs, Israel aims to further isolate Iran and secure its interests in the region.

It’s an audacious strategy — every which way you look at it. Critics say it’s an endless war. But Israel calls it survival. Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz has vowed to inflict biblical plagues on Yemen’s Houthis. He invoked the 10 disasters that the Book of Exodus says were inflicted on Egypt by the Hebrew God to convince the Pharaoh to free the enslaved Israelites. But the question is: Will any or all of this — the unprecedented Israeli strikes against Hamas leaders in Qatar, and, the shift in Israel’s strategy against the Houthis in Yemen — forge peace or ignite a war? In this high-stakes game, will Israel be able to arrange the final piece in the jigsaw that is the New Middle East?

(The writer is a senior consulting editor with D.D. India)

 

Last updated on: 14th Sep 2025