Will the agreement between the West Asian Kingdom and the nuclear-armed South Asian country bring more stability or spark new worries?
On 17th September, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a groundbreaking mutual defence pact in Riyadh that is shaking up West Asia and South Asia at once. It was signed by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, with Pakistan’s Army chief also present. This pact, called the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, has everyone talking — from diplomats to defence analysts. Why does it matter? What does it mean for the region? And how might it affect India and Indian interests? Let me break it down for you.
But first things first. You need to know exactly what a mutual defence pact is and what it means. Think of it as a solemn promise between two countries to have each other’s backs in a fight. It’s like a treaty where if one nation gets attacked, say by an external aggressor, the other has to step in and help defend it. These pacts are all about military alliances where countries agree to share resources, intelligence and even troops if needed. The goal? To deter enemies by making it clear that messing with one means messing with both. It’s not just words on paper. It often leads to joint training, weapons sharing and co-ordinated strategies to keep peace. Famous examples include the trans-Atlantic NATO treaty, the U.S. — South Korea pact and the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the U.S. and Japan, among others.
Now that you have a fair idea of what we’re talking about, let me unpack the Saudi Arabia — Pakistan pact for you. According to the joint statement from both Governments, it declares that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both. In other words, an attack on Saudi Arabia is seen as an attack on Pakistan and vice versa. The agreement builds on their decades-old ties, shared Islamic values and close military co-operation. To that extent, the pact only formalises what they’ve been doing for years, like Pakistan training thousands of Saudi troops since the 1960s. The pact aims to develop aspects of defence cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression … …
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have a defence relationship stretching back decades, in part due to Islamabad’s willingness to defend the Islamic holy sites of Mecca and Medina in the Kingdom. Pakistani troops first travelled to Saudi Arabia in the late 1960s over concerns about Egypt’s war in Yemen at the time. Those ties increased after Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the Kingdom’s fears of a confrontation with Tehran.
Why is this pact important? For starters, Saudi Arabia is the oil-rich giant of the Gulf with massive economic clout while Pakistan brings military muscle, including its nuclear arsenal — the only one in the Islamic world. And that adds a layer of complexity and volatility to the pact. While neither side has explicitly said that the pact includes nuclear weapons, it covers everything from conventional weapons to advanced technology. Asked whether Pakistan would be obliged to provide Saudi Arabia with a nuclear umbrella under the pact, a Saudi Arabian oficial told the Reuters news agency, rather cryptically, that this is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means.
The Kingdom has long had close economic, religious and security ties to Pakistan, including reportedly providing funding for Islamabad’s nuclear weapons programme. Analysts have suggested over the years that Saudi Arabia could be included under Islamabad’s nuclear umbrella. A retired Pakistani Brigadier General, Feroz Hassan Khan, in his book on his country’s nuclear weapons programme called “Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistani Bomb” said that Saudi Arabia provided generous financial support for the programme’s effort. In a 2007 U.S. diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks, U.S. diplomats in Saudi Arabia noted that their Pakistani counterparts had brought up the idea of the Kingdom pursuing a weapons programme alongside Islamabad.
It’s also a big deal globally because it shows that Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia are diversifying their security options. They’ve long relied on the U.S. but with doubts about American commitments, especially after the 9th September Israeli strikes on Qatar, this pact signals Riyadh is hedging its bets. The Gulf–Arab states grow increasingly wary about the reliability of the U.S. as their longstanding security guarantor.
What’s in it for Pakistan, you might wonder? Well, for one, the Kingdom has long been a bulwark of economic support to help shore up Pakistan’s faltering economy.
Is there a precedent for this? Has either country signed something similar before? The answer is yes, although this pact is qualitatively different from the ones listed below. Let’s start with Saudi Arabia. Back in the 1950s, the Kingdom inked a Mutual Defence Assistance Agreement with the U.S. The U.S. gave military aid and training in exchange for basing rights and cooperation against the Soviet bloc. Saudi Arabia has also been part of broader Gulf alliances such as the Peninsula Shield Force under the Gulf Cooperation Council. As for Pakistan, it has been in the game of alliances since the Cold War. In 1954, it signed a Mutual Defence Assistance Agreement with the U.S., which led to billions in aid and weapons. It joined SEATO and CENTO. SEATO or the South-East Asia Treaty Organisation was a Cold War-era collective defence treaty and organisation formed in 1954 by eight countries — the U.S., France, the U.K., Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines and Thailand — to prevent the spread of communism in South-East Asia. CENTO or the Central Treaty Organisation was a Cold War military alliance aimed at countering Soviet influence in West Asia. It comprised Iran, Turkiye, Pakistan and the U.K. among others. More recently, Pakistan has defence ties with China through joint ventures and exercises, but not a pact per se. So, while both nations have precedents, this Saudi Arabia — Pakistan pact is unique because it’s between two key Islamic countries — one in West Asia and the other in South Asia — without a Western superpower pulling the strings.
The timing of this pact cannot be ignored either, coming as it does after Israel carried out airstrikes in Qatar’s capital Doha. Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, saw it as a violation of Gulf sovereignty. However, Saudi Arabia insists that the pact with Pakistan is not a direct response to any single event. The Reuters news agency quoted a Saudi Arabian official as saying that this agreement is a culmination of years of discussions and that it is an institutionalisation of longstanding and deep cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
Which brings us to another question: What are its implications for India? India has been building strong ties with Saudi Arabia. Riyadh says that this pact won’t change its ties with New Delhi. The Saudi Arabian official who spoke to Reuters says: Our relationship with India is more robust than it has ever been. We will continue to grow this relationship and seek to contribute to regional peace whichever way we can”.
However, India is cautious; not least because the pact comes months after India conducted a military operation codenamed Sindoor against Pakistan in retaliation to the 22nd April terror attack at Pahalgam. Incidentally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was visiting Saudi Arabia when he cut short his trip following the terror attack. New Delhi says that it will study the implications of this development for its national security as well as for regional and global stability. The statement adds that India was aware that this development, which formalises a long-standing arrangement between the two countries, had been under consideration.