According to the latest forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), enhanced rainfall activity is likely to persist across South India in the coming week, with isolated heavy to very heavy showers expected over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the next seven days. Tamil Nadu is likely to see very heavy rainfall between October 15 and 17, while Kerala and Mahé are likely to experience very heavy rainfall on October 16 and 17.
Conditions are favourable for the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from the remaining parts of the country within the next 24 hours. Simultaneously, the setting in of easterly and northeasterly winds over southern peninsular India and the adjoining Bay of Bengal is expected to mark the onset of the northeast monsoon rainfall over the southeast peninsular region during the same period.
In the past 24 hours (ending at 8:30 a.m. on October 15), heavy to very heavy rainfall was recorded at isolated places in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, while coastal Karnataka experienced heavy rainfall.
IMD defines heavy rain as rainfall between 64.5 mm and 115.5 mm, very heavy rain as rainfall between 115.6 mm and 204.4 mm, and extremely heavy rain as rainfall exceeding 204.4 mm.
Meanwhile, in Delhi-NCR, dry and clear conditions are set to continue through October 18.
On Wednesday, skies are expected to remain mainly clear, with maximum temperatures ranging between 31°C and 33°C – about 1-2°C below normal. Winds will be northwesterly in the afternoon at speeds of 5-10 kmph, turning northeasterly and lighter in the evening.
Mornings from October 16-18 are likely to be hazy or misty. Maximum temperatures will hover around 31-34°C, while minimum temperatures will range from 16-20°C.
On 16 October, both daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to be below normal, with calm morning winds strengthening slightly by afternoon. On 17 October, minimum temperatures should rise marginally, while maximums remain near normal. Northerly winds may pick up in the afternoon before easing again at night. Similar conditions are expected on 18 October, with no significant change in temperatures.
The contrast in weather patterns highlights the seasonal transition underway – while southern India braces for the northeast monsoon, northern plains are entering a period of stable, clear post-monsoon conditions. Authorities have advised residents in southern states to remain alert to the potential impacts of heavy rainfall, including localised flooding and waterlogging.