The African country of Guinea-Bissau falls under military rule. Again!
On the morning of 26th November, gunfire erupts near the Presidential Palace. Witnesses describe sustained automatic fire, explosions, and, armoured vehicles sealing off the city centre. By noon, State television flickers to life, not with the result of a just-concluded presidential election, but with a group of soldiers in military fatigues.
The Army proclaims total control; deposes the incumbent President, Umaro Sissoco Embalo; announces the formation of a so-called High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order; suspends electoral processes; shuts all borders – land, air and sea; stops all media broadcasts; and imposes a curfew. And with that, for the 12th time in 10 years, a nation on the African continent falls to military rule.
The irony is brutal. The man who commands the Presidential Guard overthrows the very leader he is paid to protect! So, who is Denis N’Canha? Here’s what we know about him. He’s a career soldier; in his early 50s. Little known outside military circles, until now that is. Belongs to an ethnic group called the Balanta; the Balanta people are among the largest ethnic groups in Guinea-Bissau. He serves in the 1998 – 1999 civil war as a young lieutenant, rises quietly through the ranks and earns a reputation for loyalty and discipline. President Embalo makes him a Brigadier-General and rewards him in 2021 with the most sensitive post in the country – Head of the Military Office of the Presidency. Effectively, he becomes the commander of the Presidential Guard and the President’s shadow on every trip, every meeting, every midnight crisis. Sources inside the military describe him as a man who speaks little, but listens to everything.
And then there is Gen. Horta Nta Na Man. On 27th November, Gen. Horta is sworn in as the transitional President of Guinea-Bissau. Wearing a military uniform and flanked by other military officers, the General makes his first public appearance as leader at a ceremony broadcast Thursday on State T.V. He tells the nation that the coup was necessary to stave off a plot by narco-traffickers to capture power. He promises a one-year transitional period to restore stability and constitutional order. Gen. Horta is a Balanta, like Brig. Gen. N’Canha. (The Balantas are historically dominant in the military.) Until 2022, Gen. Horta commands the Presidential Guard. In February 2022, he plays a key role in repelling a coup-attempt against Mr. Embalo and is rewarded with promotion to Brigadier-General and command of the National Guard. In June 2023, he is promoted to Major General. Between September 2023 and November 2025, he serves as the Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces. He is widely viewed as an Embalo loyalist.
As for Embalo, he was seeking to become Guinea-Bissau’s first President in three decades to win back-to-back terms. However, his trusted lieutenants choose to orchestrate a coup on the eve of the expected announcement of the result of the presidential election that was held on 23rd November. That election pitted Embalo against Opposition candidate Fernando Dias. The man widely seen as a top challenger, former prime minister Domingos Simoes Pereira, was barred from contesting; unable to run, he throws his weight behind Dias. Both Embalo and Dias declared victory, despite little evidence to support their claims. The 2019 presidential election had ended in a similar situation, with two main candidates claiming victory, leaving the country in uncertainty for four months.
Embalo has since confirmed to the Paris-based FRANCE 24 T.V. that he has indeed been deposed. He is reported to have been taken to neighbouring Senegal. He landed in Senegal aboard a special flight following an intervention by the Economic Community of West African States or ECOWAS, a regional political and economic union of countries in western Africa. He was taken there on a military plane chartered by the Government of Senegal.
Embalo has said in the past that he survived three coup-attempts during his time in office. Gunfire rang out for hours in the capital in December 2023 in, what he said at the time, was an attempted putsch. He dissolved Parliament in response and the country has been without a functioning legislature ever since. The most recent reported coup-attempt took place in October, when authorities announced that a group of military officers had been arrested on suspicion of trying to topple the Government.
It would not be an exaggeration to say that Guinea-Bissau is synonymous with Coup, Corruption, Cashew, and, Cocaine! Here’s what you should know. Guinea-Bissau is located in western Africa. It is bordered by Senegal to the north, and Guinea to the east and south, with the Atlantic Ocean along its western coast. The Portuguese-speaking country is historically one of the most unstable and coup-prone countries in the world. It has an estimated population of 2.25 million people. It is among the world’s poorest countries, with nearly 40 per cent of the population living in extreme poverty. The country is ranked 174th out of 193 on the U.N.’s Human Development Index.
Agriculture is the main economic driver of Guinea-Bissau – one of the biggest cashew-nut producers in the world. The crop dominates the country’s economy. The World Bank says that cashew accounts for more than 80 per cent of its exports. The economy has expanded in recent years but chronic instability has made the country vulnerable to corruption and South American drug cartels. In fact, Guinea-Bissau has become a hub for drug-trafficking between Latin America and Europe. For example, in September 2024 2.6 tonnes of cocaine were seized from a plane that landed in Bissau from Venezuela. Guinea-Bissau is also among several countries in western Africa grappling with the spread of Kush – a cheap and highly addictive drug which has ravaged the region’s disaffected youth.
The latest military coup has regional and international organisations worried. The ECOWAS expresses deep concern and calls for the unconditional restoration of constitutional order without delay. Election Observer Missions of the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States, and the West African Elders Forum issue a joint statement in which they describe the coup as an attempt to erode Guinea-Bissau’s progress towards stability. They maintain that both the presidential and legislative elections have been orderly and peaceful. The statement goes on to say that “it is regrettable that this announcement came at a time when the missions had just concluded a meeting with the two leading presidential candidates, who assured us of their willingness to accept the will of the people”.
Incidentally, some foreign leaders visiting Guinea-Bissau were taken by surprise by the coup. Nigeria’s former President Goodluck Jonathan and Mozambique’s former President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi were among foreign leaders stranded in Guinea-Bissau after the country’s military announced it had seized power. The African leaders were in the country on an election observation mission.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres says he is deeply concerned about the situation. Former colonial power Portugal calls on all parties to avoid any acts of violence. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ghana said that the coup has brazenly disrupted the electoral process and blocked the anticipated announcement of results scheduled for 27th November, thereby derailing the country’s democratic trajectory. South Africa calls for “the immediate restoration of democracy and completion of the electoral process”. France chimes in by calling for the respect for the Constitutional order and democracy in the country.
There’s something else you should know. What took place on 26th November is not new for the people of Guinea-Bissau. Since its independence from Portugal in 1974, the country has suffered a number of successful military coups. In fact, Guinea-Bissau has had more successful coups than peaceful transfers of power! It is, what scholars call, the “coup trap”. Once a country crosses a certain threshold, the military becomes the only functioning institution, and every crisis is solved with rifles. But, and this is equally important, Guinea-Bissau is not the only African country that has seen coups. Africa has recorded at least 12 successful military takeovers in 10 years – three times in Burkina Faso, twice in Mali, and once each in Chad, Guinea, Sudan, Niger, Gabon, Madagascar – just last month in October – and now Guinea-Bissau. The playbook is identical: Accuse the civilian government of corruption and electoral theft, promise elections when conditions allow and dare ECOWAS to invade.
Not surprisingly then, that the streets of Bissau are calm. As the saying goes, the people of Guinea-Bissau have seen this movie before. They probably already know how it ends. So no one is celebrating. No one is protesting. People are simply waiting to see which General will betray the next General!
On 26th November, coup leader Brig. Gen. N’Canha promised that the military would hand power back to civilians as soon as stability is restored.
In Guinea-Bissau, those words have been spoken so many times they sound like a national lullaby.