Peace-talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Taliban remain deadlocked. What started as a glimmer of hope after deadly border-clashes has fizzled into finger-pointing and fresh threats. Both sides say that they will resume negotiations at Istanbul in Turkiye on 6th November.
For now, they have agreed to extend the ceasefire. Pakistan warns that the ceasefire is neither open-ended nor unconditional.
How did things come to such a pass? Let’s rewind a little.
In October, tensions exploded along the 2,600-kilometre-long frontier separating Afghanistan and Pakistan – called the Durand Line – which Afghanistan does not recognise. The violence erupted following explosions in Kabul on 9th October, which the Taliban authorities blamed on Pakistan. Pakistan claimed that the airstrikes deep inside Afghanistan targeted the hideouts of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan extremist group in Kabul and Kandahar. The Taliban fired back, attacking Pakistani posts. Dozens died on both sides. It was the worst violence since the Taliban seized Kabul in 2021. The United Nations Mission in Afghanistan told French news agency A.F.P. that at least 50 Afghan civilians had been killed and 4 hundred and 47 injured. For its part, Pakistan’s military said that 23 of its personnel had been killed and 29 others wounded, without detailing civilian casualties.
On 19th October, the Taliban and Pakistan agreed to a pause in fighting following talks hosted by Qatar in Doha.
In the last week of October, Turkiye hosted the second round of talks in Istanbul, again with Qatar’s help. The talks were aimed at securing a long-term truce between Afghanistan and Pakistan because unchecked violence could spark a full-blown war, dragging in the U.S., China, and even India.
So, these were high-stakes, closed-door huddles. Pakistan sent its Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, Information Minister Atta-ullah Tarar, and Maj. Gen. Shahab Aslam from the Pakistani spy agency I.S.I.’s special operations wing. The Taliban delegation was led by Defence Minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob. Talks were held over a number of days but deadlock persisted. Pakistan blamed the Taliban for dodging commitments. Kabul pointed fingers right back. It was reported that direct interaction between the two delegations remained limited throughout, with most communications handled through mediators. Even during meal breaks, the two sides barely spoke.
Discussions got tense fast. In a heated exchange, the Pakistani General admitted that Pakistan could not stop drone attacks inside Afghanistan because of a secret pact with the U.S. For the Taliban, the presence of U.S. drones in Pakistan is an irritant. Taliban retorted that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan was Pakistan’s internal matter.
Formed in 2007, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, also known by its acronym T.T.P., is a loose alliance of extremists (mostly Pashtuns from Pakistan) who want to topple the Government in Islamabad and impose a strict Sharia or Islamic law. Pakistan uses the term Fitna al-Khawarij to describe the T.T.P. militants. According to a notification issued by Pakistan’s Interior Ministry in July 2024, the T.T.P. has hurt Islam and, therefore, such elements are to be referred to as Fitna al-Khawarij. Pakistan says that the Taliban gives the T.T.P. safe havens, training camps, and even ideological cover.
A quick word about the Pashtuns before we move on. The Pashtuns are an ethnic group, living in Afghanistan and Pakistan. They share a common, cultural identity. They are the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan and the second largest in Pakistan. The Durand Line, which is the de facto border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, divides the Pashtun population between the two countries and has been a source of friction ever since. Therefore, the concept of a unified Pashtunistan has been a recurring theme in regional politics.
Talking of the border, it’s been closed now for weeks on end. News of the deadlocked talks was met with despair. A vehicle spare-parts trader in the Pakistani border town of Chaman told French news agency A.F.P that the closure was very concerning for businesses.
The Pakistani delegation reacted with fury to the failure of the talks. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif threatened to obliterate the Taliban, in a dramatic escalation of rhetoric. Minister Asif said on X: “Pakistan does not require to employ even a fraction of its full arsenal to completely obliterate the Taliban regime and push them back to the caves for hiding”.
Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said that truce negotiations concluded for now in Istanbul without a workable solution because, he alleged, the Afghan side kept deviating from the core issue on which the dialogue process was initiated. He accused the Taliban negotiators of engaging in deflection and playing a blame game.
For its part, the Afghan side said that it had no control over the Pakistani Taliban. Abdul Mateen Qani, a spokesperson for Afghanistan’s interior ministry, told Afghan media outlet Ariana News that any Pakistani provocation would be met with a response that will serve as a lesson for Pakistan and a message for others.
What has equally upset Pakistan was the Taliban’s announcement of a dam on the Kunar river. Just days before the talks began, Taliban Supreme Leader Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada greenlit the plan, aiming to restrict flow of water to Pakistan after deadly clashes along the Durand Line. Taliban Deputy Information Minister Muhajer Farahi shared the information on X. It echoed India’s decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan in abeyance, as retaliation for the 22nd April terror attack at Pahalgam in India.
Building a dam on the Kunar river would mean reduced flow of water, which could cause drought in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab provinces of Pakistan.
The Kunar River is a tributary of the Kabul River. The 480-kilometre-long Kunar River originates in the Hindu Kush mountains, near the Broghil Pass, close to Pakistan. It then flows south into Afghanistan, running through the Kunar and Nangarhar provinces, before emptying into the Kabul River. In Pakistan, this river is known as the Chitral. The Kabul River, into which Kunar merges, forms the most significant trans-boundary water-system between the two nations. It feeds into the Indus River near Attock, serving as a crucial source for water for irrigation and agriculture in Pakistan’s north-western provinces.
Taliban’s Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi, who visited India in October, appreciated India’s development-support over the years. A joint statement issued towards the end of Muttaqi’s visit said that both sides underscored the importance of sustainable water management.
The Indian foreign ministry spokesperson said that “India stands ready to support Afghanistan in its efforts to manage water resources sustainably, including with hydroelectric projects[.] As you know, there is a history of cooperation, including the Salma Dam in Herat province.”
The spokesperson Indian diplomat rubbed it in by saying that “Pakistan is infuriated with Afghanistan exercising sovereignty over its territories[.] Pakistan seems to think it has the right to practice cross-border terrorism with impunity. Its neighbours find it unacceptable[.] India remains committed to the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of Afghanistan”.
According to latest reports, Pakistan and Taliban are likely to resume talks in Istanbul at Turkiye’s request. A joint statement issued by Turkiye said that Pakistan has agreed to continue a conditional ceasefire with the Taliban. Also that both sides will resume talks in Istanbul on 6th November.