Gold prices are expected to scale fresh highs in 2026, supported by sustained central bank buying, anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, a weaker dollar, geopolitical risks and rising investment through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to the Commodities Outlook 2026 released by ING.
The report noted that central banks remain active buyers of gold, while market expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are strengthening the outlook for the precious metal. Ongoing trade tensions, elevated geopolitical risks and continued ETF inflows indicate that the current bullish trend has room to extend. ING expects gold prices to average $4,325 per ounce in 2026.
According to the outlook, the choice of the next Federal Reserve chair by Donald Trump is expected to favour lower interest rates, a development that typically benefits gold prices. Central banks have also continued to add to their gold reserves as part of diversification strategies.
In the third quarter of 2025 alone, central banks purchased an estimated 220 tonnes of gold, marking a 28 per cent rise from the previous quarter.
Countries such as Poland, China and Kazakhstan have been among the most active buyers. Poland’s central bank, in particular, resumed gold purchases after a pause of nearly five months. The report added that rising gold accumulation by central banks is driven by concerns over sanctions and asset freezes, especially following actions taken by the US and Europe against Russian foreign assets.
Investment demand has also remained strong, with gold-backed ETFs witnessing sizeable inflows. ETF investors added 222 tonnes of gold in recent months, taking global holdings close to their all-time high last recorded in November 2020.
Silver, often referred to as “gold on steroids,” also touched new highs in 2025, driven by persistent supply deficits, strong industrial demand from sectors such as solar energy, electric vehicles and electronics, and renewed investor interest due to its relatively lower price compared to gold.
On the supply side, silver is expected to face its fifth consecutive year of deficit, continuing a multi-year trend of tight physical availability. ING said silver prices are likely to remain well-supported in 2026 amid resilient industrial demand, limited supply growth and a more favourable global macroeconomic environment.
The report projects silver prices to average $55 per ounce in 2026.
-ANI
