After 23 years, the last American boots are leaving Iraqi soil. Come 30th September, the military mission that began with the 2003 invasion will officially be over. But is this a true exit or just a shift next door? What does it mean for Iraq, Iran, and a deeply volatile region?
For nearly a generation, the U.S. military has shaped Iraq’s fate. From the “shock-and-awe” invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein to the brutal, years-long fight against the Islamic State terrorist group, U.S. forces have been a permanent fixture. Now, under an agreement struck between Washington, D.C. and Baghdad, that chapter is closing.
Let’s rewind to March 2003. A U.S.-led coalition invades, citing weapons of mass destruction that were never found. Saddam Hussein falls. What follows is a painful cycle of occupation, bloody insurgency and the rise of Al-Qaeda in Iraq — the terror group that would later morph into the Islamic State.
At its peak in 2007, more than 1,70,000 U.S. troops were on the ground. The human and financial cost? Staggering. The U.S.-based Brown University’s “Costs of War Project” estimates that the U.S. spent 1.79 trillion dollars on its campaigns in Iraq and Syria. More than 4,400 U.S. service members lost their lives. Iraqi civilian deaths from direct violence ran into the hundreds of thousands.
In 2011, the then U.S. President Barack Obama withdrew the last U.S. combat troops from Iraq. However, just three years later, the Islamic State terrorist group seized a third of the country. So, U.S. forces returned, at Baghdad’s request, under Operation Inherent Resolve. The mission eventually shifted from combat to advising and assisting.
The Islamic State was declared defeated in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria in 2019. By 2024, Iraq and the U.S. agreed that the coalition had done its job.
So, what we are seeing right now is the final act. The U.S. already wrapped up its presence in Syria a few months ago. (U.S. forces completed their evacuation from Syria on 16th April following the historic collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in 2024 and subsequent shift in Damascus.)
In Iraq, troops have spent the last few months packing up. They’ve handed over the main bases. The final pull-out is happening, right now, from the Kurdistan region, specifically the Harir Air Base. Equipment, vehicles and air-defence systems are being loaded up and shipped .
President Donald Trump says that the U.S. no longer needs a military footprint there. He argues that the future is about trade and investment. However, the U.S. is not abandoning West Asia, or the Middle East as some would like to call it. Reports show that most of these remaining troops and air-defences are simply being redeployed next door to Jordan and other regional hubs. It’s a departure from Iraqi territory; not a retreat from the region. all, the U.S. still maintains about 750 overseas military sites across 80 countries.
All of which raises three critical questions:
— Does this restore Iraq’s sovereignty for the first time in many years?
— Is Iraq more secure than before?
— And will the withdrawal benefit Iran?
Let’s tackle them one by one.
First: Does this restore Iraq’s true sovereignty? Strictly speaking, yes. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is framing 1st October as a historic day of total sovereignty. From here on out, Iraqi forces and Kurdish Peshmerga take the absolute lead. However, true sovereignty requires a monopoly on power.
That brings us to the second question: Is Iraq actually secure? Against the Islamic State, yes. However, Iraq faces a massive internal threat from heavily-armed, Iran-aligned militias such as Kataib Hezbollah. These factions command roughly 50,000 fighters equipped with long-range missiles. In a bold move just days ago, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi set a hard deadline of 27th June 2027 to completely disarm these groups. Whether he can actually force them to surrender their weapons remains a massive gamble.
This leads us to the third and last question: Does this withdrawal hand a victory to Iran? Possibly. For a couple of reasons. For one, the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq has historically been a significant national security threat and strategic hurdle for Iran. So, to that extent, the departure of U.S. forces represents a major geopolitical victory for Tehran. Second, with U.S. air defences leaving Erbil, Iran will certainly find freer manoeuvring space and greater political leverage inside Baghdad. However, it also introduces a complex set of new vulnerabilities. For starters, Tehran loses an easy target. Remember, Iran-backed proxies have launched nearly 200 attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria since the conflict with the U.S. and Israel erupted in February this year.
Ultimately, the pull-out removes an immediate flashpoint in the broader U.S. — Iran confrontation. However, it doesn’t end it. It simply relocates the U.S. chess pieces.
For Iraq, 30th September is being billed as the dawn of a new era.
For the U.S., it’s the end of a 23-year chapter that defined a generation of foreign policy.
The troops are leaving. The questions they leave behind are just beginning.
