The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that the country will see above-normal rainfall this month. Most regions are expected to enjoy this rainy weather, except for parts of the northeast, northwest, east, and southeast peninsular India, where rainfall might be below normal.
Temperature-wise, the IMD predicts that most parts of India will experience above-normal minimum temperatures. However, in the northwest, central India, or southeastern peninsular India, you might see temperatures sticking to normal or even dipping below normal levels. Maximum temperatures will generally stay normal to below normal in the northwest and southern peninsulas, while central, east, and northeast India might feel a bit hotter than usual.
Regarding the sea surface temperatures (SST), the current El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are neutral. This means that while the central and western Pacific Ocean is warmer than average, the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is cooler. There’s a possibility that La Nina conditions might develop in the latter part of the monsoon season.
The Indian Ocean is currently experiencing neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which are expected to continue through the monsoon season.