Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is drawing more support from Black voters than President Joe Biden did when he was in the race this year, while Republican Donald Trump’s support among white voters has risen somewhat in recent months, according to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling.
The analysis, which examined more than 10,000 responses from seven nationwide Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted since May, points to significant strengths and vulnerabilities for Harris, the U.S. vice president who took over Biden’s campaign when the president dropped his re-election bid on July 21.
Harris would be the first Black woman elected president, as well as the first Asian American, if she were to defeat Trump in the Nov. 5 election.
Some 70% of Black voters polled in July picked Harris over Trump on a hypothetical ballot, up from 59% who backed Biden in May and June polls. Trump’s share of the Black vote rose marginally to 12% in July from 9% in May and June.
Trump, meanwhile, is seeing increased support from white voters. Some 50% picked Trump in July polls, up from 46% in May and June. Harris had the support of 38% of white voters in July, compared to 36% in May and June.
The race remains essentially tied, with Harris and Trump each getting 43% support in an aggregate of last month’s polls. Biden and Trump each had 40% in the polls conducted in the previous two months.
The analysis examined poll responses gathered throughout July on a hypothetical Harris-Trump contest and included responses from before Biden, 81, ended his bid. All responses on Harris, however, were gathered after Biden’s June 27 debate against Trump, when the president’s faltering performance led Democrats to call on him to end his campaign.
White voters make up the biggest racial bloc, accounting for 72% of all voters in the 2020 election, according to the Pew Research Center, though their share of the electorate has dropped sharply in recent decades.
African Americans accounted for only 11% of voters that year. But they are a critical component of the Democratic Party’s coalition and could play an outsized role in this year’s election.
Black voters in Georgia, for example, propelled Biden to victory over Trump in the 2020 presidential election. But a surge in the cost of living and what they see as a lack of progress on racial justice issues has prompted disillusionment in some quarters.
Terrance Woodbury, a Democratic pollster who specializes in minority voter outreach, said Harris needs overwhelming support from African Americans to compensate for her weakness among white voters, particularly white men and seniors. Biden won 92% of the Black vote in 2020, while Trump won 55% of white votes, according to analysis of exit polls by the Pew Research Center.
“She’s going to have to consolidate her base of Black voters, of young voters and women of color,” Woodbury said.
Harris could be picking up a larger share of Black voters who had previously been on the fence. Some 19% of Black registered voters in July said they were undecided, might pick a third candidate or not vote at all, down from 31% in May and June.
A Harris campaign official said the campaign expects the race to remain close in the run-up to November.
The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Trump has falsely accused Harris of previously downplaying her Black heritage. He drew jeers from a convention of Black journalists when he said she only promoted her Indian heritage in the past. Harris, who is of Indian and Jamaican heritage, has long identified as both Black and Asian.
Reuters combined multiple polls to examine trends among smaller racial and ethnic groups. Margins of error for the poll results varied between about 2 and 6 percentage points.
(Reuters)