Two days after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a surprise operation in Caracas, global energy markets opened to cautious trading, with oil prices showing only modest movement despite the geopolitical shock. Futures briefly firmed in Asian trade on Monday, but analysts said the muted reaction reflected Venezuela’s sharply diminished output, now below one million barrels per day, and a market already weighed down by surplus supply and weak demand. The developments come just a day after the January 4 OPEC meeting, where producers led by Saudi Arabia opted to maintain output policy, citing fragile demand conditions and continuing economic uncertainty across West Asia and major consuming regions.
For the Gulf states, which have built their economies on hydrocarbons and increasingly compete for petrochemical markets, Venezuela’s potential return to global oil markets could reshape supply dynamics and pricing power.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said American oil companies will invest billions of dollars to rehabilitate Venezuela’s damaged energy infrastructure, reviving long-standing expectations of a future supply return. However, industry specialists caution that any material increase in exports would take years and heavy capital spending, especially given the country’s heavy, high-sulphur crude and the global shift toward cleaner energy. For now, analysts project near-term oil prices could see a limited rise of about two to three dollars a barrel on risk sentiment, while the longer-term outlook remains broadly bearish should Venezuelan production recover to even a fraction of its historical peaks, adding new supply to an already well-supplied market.
The capture of Venezuela’s president by U.S. forces has injected fresh geopolitical risk into global energy markets, but the immediate price impact has so far been restrained. Venezuela today produces less than one percent of global oil supply, a sharp fall from its former position as a major exporter, and years of underinvestment have left its oil sector in disrepair.
In the near term, traders expect modest volatility, with prices likely to edge higher on uncertainty over political stability and the possibility of further disruption. OPEC’s January 4 decision to keep production policy unchanged reflects broader concerns about weak demand.
Over the medium to long term, the outlook becomes more complex. If political stability takes hold and sanctions are eased, Venezuela could begin to rebuild output, potentially restoring hundreds of thousands of barrels per day within a few years. Such a recovery would add bearish pressure to prices and intensify competition with heavy crude suppliers.
Beyond oil, Venezuela’s vast mineral reserves are also under renewed scrutiny. In the near term, metals markets are expected to see minimal impact because production has already fallen to negligible levels. Over the longer term, a successful reopening of regulated mining could add supply of gold, bauxite and critical minerals, which would be broadly bearish for prices, but such a transformation would require years of reform, security and infrastructure rebuilding.
