China unleashes a ruthless, coordinated diplomatic campaign against Taiwan’s last allies but small countries such as Palau and Eswatini are fighting back
China is ruthlessly squeezing the world’s smallest nations to completely wipe out Taiwan’s global footprint.
From Pacific islands to African kingdoms, the message from Beijing is clear – fall in line or face the consequences.
China is unleashing a global crackdown on Taiwan’s last allies. It is a coordinated, ruthless diplomatic ambush spanning thousands of kilometres; from the pristine waters of the Pacific to the heart of southern Africa.
We begin in Palau, the host of this year’s Pacific Islands Forum. The summit was designed to project regional unity. Instead, it has been fractured by a distinct lack of leaders.
In a surprise development, five Pacific leaders skipped the summit at the eleventh hour. The leaders of Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa, Kiribati, and the Solomon Islands chose to send low-ranking ministers instead. Why? Because Taiwan – a regional development partner of the Pacific islands since 1992 – was in attendance. Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung was invited for meetings and side events held alongside the summit.
Beijing’s special envoy openly warned the Forum of unspecified consequences. Some called it a calculated execution of chequebook diplomacy – weaponising economic leverage right under the West’s nose.
Founded in 1971, the Pacific Islands Forum comprises 18 members – Australia, Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Naoero, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu.
Today, only three Pacific Island States remain loyal to Taipei — Palau, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands. While their leaders debated regional security behind closed doors, Beijing launched aggressive information warfare tactics. China flew a cohort of local Pacific journalists directly to the Chinese mainland — a blatant attempt to hijack the narrative and blindside the Pacific family.
However, the squeeze doesn’t stop in the Pacific. Thousands of kilometres away in Africa, China is executing a parallel strike. Beijing has ordered an emergency evacuation of its citizens from the Kingdom of Eswatini, urging them to flee to South Africa immediately. Officially, Beijing blames cyber fraud and illegal gambling but the truth lies elsewhere.
Eswatini is Taiwan’s last remaining diplomatic ally in Africa. So what does China do? It slaps a zero-tariff policy on every single African nation except Eswatini. This is what Chinese coercion looks like – pure, heavy-handed isolation.
Here’s an interesting story for you. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te’s State visit to Eswatini took place in May this year. However, the trip was highly contentious and heavily delayed in no small measure due to unprecedented geopolitical manoeuvring by China. President Lai was initially scheduled to visit Eswatini in April. He was set to attend the historic celebrations marking the Eswatini King’s 40th anniversary on the throne. However, just 12 hours before his departure, the trip was abruptly suspended. The three Indian Ocean island nations of Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar unilaterally revoked overflight permits for the Taiwanese presidential aircraft. They did it despite having approved them weeks prior because of intense pressure and economic coercion from China. This marked the first known instance in history where a Taiwanese President’s entire foreign trip was halted because airspace was denied.
That said, the visit did take place. To bypass further interference, the trip was completely unannounced. President Lai covertly flew out and reached Eswatini a few weeks later, landing in an aircraft provided by the Eswatini Government. The public and media were only informed after he safely touched down.
China is treating Palau no differently for inviting Taiwan to the Pacific Islands Forum summit. Beijing retaliated by warning citizens that Palau, which depends on tourism, is an unsafe destination. Chinese tourists are said to be the largest group of visitors to Palau.
However, the pushback from Pacific Island leaders has been fierce. Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr. stood defiant. He condemned Beijing’s history of weaponising tourism and economic pressure. He said: “Our partners are welcome to sail with us, but they do not choose our destination.”
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that the Pacific Islands Forum sets its own course. “The Pacific Islands Forum determines what happens here, not any other country”, he said.
New Zealand’s Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, called the sudden absence of one-third of the region’s leaders as highly suspicious. He called for action with a local idiom — “We want more doing, less hui”. Hui means meetings in the Maori language. The phrase “more doing, less hui” is a Maori idiom that means stop sitting around talking, planning or holding meetings and actually take action to get things done.
As China attempts to freeze out Western allies, a counter-weight is stepping up – and a democratic one at that – not a single-party Communist state like China. The answer? India.
New Delhi dispatched Minister Pabitra Margherita to Palau. As it turned out, Margherita secured the first speaking slot at the Dialogue Partners session. He told the summit: “To give a concrete shape to our Indo-Pacific Vision, India announced the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative in 2019, which focusses on our shared interest in collaborative efforts to secure an open and free maritime domain, while also ensuring the health of the oceans[.]
“India has been undertaking demand-driven Quick Impact Projects across the 14 Pacific Island Countries. At the P.I.F. Summit in Tonga in 2024, I announced India’s support for one Quick Impact Project n each Pacific Island Country. I am pleased that work on these projects has progressed well and is showing results”.
Guided by its Act East Policy and the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative, India is offering the Pacific Islands a different path. Rather than heavy-handed pressure, India has delivered concrete development aid – including maritime infrastructure, climate-resilience funds, and demand-driven Quick Impact Projects. India is re-affirming that these Pacific nations are not small pawns, but sovereign, Large Ocean States.
As of today, Taiwan is left with just 12 official diplomatic allies globally. The geopolitical chessboard is tightening. What we are seeing in Palau and Eswatini isn’t just a localised dispute. It is the concrete frontline of a highly volatile, high-stakes New Cold War.
Small nations are being forced to choose sides. However, these microstates are striking back. Tiny nations such as Palau and Eswatini are fighting back against Chinese pressure to maintain their diplomatic sovereignty.
The Global South is resisting Beijing’s bullying. It is their resilience that will determine the balance of global power.
