– By Rupa Kumari
The pristine blanket of snow, enveloping the majestic Himalayas, is missing this winter. Similarly, the skiing haven of India, Gulmarg still remains snowless, having witnessed 79% rainfall deficit throughout December, as of January 8.
This unusual activity has been linked to El Nino, with the meteorologist cautioning that Gulmarg could experience more frequent and extended droughts in future.
El Nino impacting weather pattern
According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the ongoing El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures both on land and in the ocean. The WMO has also said that the El Niño developed rapidly during July-August, and reached moderate strength by September, 2023 and is likely to peak as a strong event in November-January 2024.
The WMO has forecast that the year 2024 may be even warmer than 2023, the warmest year on record. As a result of the El Nino, extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts.
Recent forecasts and expert assessment also suggest a high likelihood of continued warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific for at least the next four overlapping 3-month seasons: November-January, December-February, January-March, and February-April 2024.
El Nino is a weather phenomenon that occurs when the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than average in the eastern tropical Pacific, and there is a simultaneous weakening of trade winds. The trade winds are winds that reliably blow east to west just north and south of the equator. The winds help ships travel west, and they can also steer storms such as hurricanes, too.
Effect of El Nino
The absence of snowfall is not a one-time thing but affects the annual cycle of snow. Moreover, dry spells also impacts various fragments of the society, including, agriculture, tourism, economy, livelihood, sports and more.
The absence of snowfall is a disappointment for tourists, however, it is also affecting winter sports. For instance, the winter games in Auli in February 2023 was cancelled due to lack of snow. Lack of snow is also a concern for agriculture, raises concerns for food insecurity and potential water scarcity too.