As Sri Lanka navigates its recovery from its worst ever economic crisis, the island is gearing up for the pivotal presidential elections to elect the ninth executive President. The elections will be the first since the dramatic ousting of the Rajapaksa family from power in 2022 at the peak of the crisis.
With the memory of the economic collapse fresh in the minds of many, the election campaigns have quickly gathered momentum, promising a contentious battle for the future of the island nation. The elections are also crucial for India’s neighbourhood first policy, as India has been matching the island’s efforts believing that a safe and a prosperous Sri Lanka is important for the region.
Ranil Wickremesinghe’s Campaign: Stability Over Change
Incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who assumed office in the wake of the Rajapaksas’ fall, is running as an independent candidate. Having had two years since then, his efforts towards stabilising the economy and securing a bailout from IMF have featured in most of his meetings and rallies.
At the New People’s Front national conference held on Thursday, Mr. Wickremesinghe highlighted the decisive measures his administration took to manage the economic turmoil that had brought Sri Lanka to the brink of collapse. He has been emphasizing that the country is still in a fragile state and warned that renegotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as suggested by some of his rivals, could unravel the progress made so far and risk plunging the economy into another crisis. His speeches have also engaged the industry as he speaks on next steps in reviving the economy.
In a bid to consolidate support, over 100 Members of Parliament (MPs) from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) have rallied behind Wickremesinghe.
Meanwhile, in a meeting in Colombo, chaired by Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena and Chief Government Whip, Prasanna Ranatunga, saw these MPs discussing the formation of a new political party to back Mr. Wickremesinghe.
The meeting marked a significant moment, as it highlighted a potential realignment in Sri Lanka’s political landscape, with the SLPP faction seeking a new identity that aligns with Mr. Wickremesinghe’s leadership. Earlier, thirteen SJB parliamentarians had quit to back the President which had given a big boost to his campaign.
Sajith Premadasa: Stability and Growth
On the opposition front, Sajith Premadasa, leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), has been actively campaigning across the country. Mr. Premadasa has positioned himself as the champion of the people, particularly those who have been hardest hit by the economic crisis. In his rallies, he has repeatedly spoken about bringing in a new team to build Sri Lanka, while fighting corruption. He has been painting a stark contrast between the struggles of the people and the government’s efforts to stabilize the economy. Premadasa’s message is clear: the current administration’s policies have failed to alleviate the hardships faced by the majority, and a change in leadership is necessary to address these pressing issues.
As an alternative, Premadama has also spoken about stability of the island while also maintaining a key focus on growth. While his popularity has risen as per several surveys he would still have to face the challenge from the NPP candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayaka.
Namal Rajapaksa: A Controversial Contender
Namal Rajapaksa, representing the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, or the SLPP, has also thrown his hat into the presidential race. The son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Namal’s candidacy has sparked considerable debate. His campaign began with a rally in Anuradhapura, a city of great spiritual significance, perhaps signaling an appeal to traditional values and national pride.
However, Namal carries the baggage of his family’s legacy, with the Rajapaksas being closely associated with the economic policies that many blame for the crisis. His campaign faces the dual challenge of distancing himself from this negative legacy while also capitalizing on the residual support the Rajapaksa name still commands in some quarters.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake: A Leftist Alternative
Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the presidential candidate from the leftist alliance National People’s Power (NPP), has also intensified his campaign efforts. Mr. Dissanayake has been a vocal critic of both the previous Rajapaksa administration and the current Wickremesinghe government. His speeches have attacked the corrupt policies and spoke about bring in measures to clean the system. In addition to this, his campaign has focused on advocating for systemic change, and promoting social justice.
The NPP’s rallies have attracted significant attention, particularly among the youth and those disillusioned with the traditional political parties. Dissanayake presents himself as a break from the status quo, offering a vision of a more equitable Sri Lanka. His visit to India earlier this year has been perceived to have allowed a look at how Sri Lanka would gain from the Indian model. On the other hand, some voters would also bear in mind that his party was at the center of the riots witnessed by Sri Lanka in the 80s.
Setback to Incumbent Govenment
In a major setback to the incumbent government, the Supreme Court of Sri Lanka ordered the Election Commission to take measures to hold the postponed Local Government Elections immediately. The court also ruled that the fundamental rights of voters have been violated through the postponement of the 2023 Local Government Elections by the incumbent government. The Local Government polls were earlier scheduled for March 9, 2023, but later postponed them to April 25, 2023. However, the elections were not held after the government cited a lack of funds due to the country’s recovery from its economic crisis.
Issuing its verdict on the case, the Supreme Court ruled that the President, as the Minister of Finance, and the members of the Election Commission have violated the fundamental rights of voters. Responding to the verdict, Commissioner General of Elections Saman Sri Ratnayake said that the Election Commission had tried its best to find a way to hold the election under the presented circumstances.
Speaking at an event at Maharagama, President Wickremesinghe said that though postponing the local government election violated people’s FRs, but he was not sorry because the time was spent ensuring the right to life & committed to protecting both the right to vote & live.
A Pivotal Election
With the presidential elections scheduled for September 21st, the political atmosphere in Sri Lanka is charged. A record 39 candidates are in the fray, reflecting the deep divisions and the high stakes of this election. A major section of experts believe that the minority vote, which includes the Tamil, Muslim and Christian vote, will be decisive in these elections. For many Sri Lankans, the vote represents a critical opportunity to shape the country’s direction as it continues to recover from one of the most challenging periods in its recent history. The outcome of these elections will not only determine the leadership of the country but also the strategies employed to address its ongoing economic recovery and political stability.
As campaigning intensifies, and with so many variables, it is still unclear as to which direction the voter would turn. At the same time, if none of the candidates secure the required 50 percent vote in the first round of counting, the second preference votes would be counted in the second round of counting which could be a crucial factor in deciding the outcome.
Ahmed Muyeen Farooqi (Colombo)