Global air passenger demand is expected to continue growing in 2026, albeit at a much slower pace, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs weigh on the aviation sector and the broader global economy, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
IATA has projected industry-wide revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), a key measure of passenger demand, to grow by 2.1 per cent year-on-year in 2026. The forecast marks a notable moderation compared to the stronger growth recorded in recent years.
According to the association, ongoing hostilities in the Middle East have triggered an energy shock that is expected to push up oil and aviation fuel prices, increasing operating costs for airlines and affecting consumer spending worldwide.
“The sharp increase in oil prices and the even greater surge in fuel costs weigh on both our industry and the macroeconomic environment,” IATA said.
The aviation body estimates that global economic growth could slow by around half a percentage point to 2.5 per cent in 2026, while inflation may rise to 5 per cent, reducing household purchasing power and affecting travel demand.
Among regions, the Middle East is expected to witness the sharpest decline, with passenger traffic projected to contract by 11.4 per cent in 2026. IATA attributed the downturn to airspace restrictions, operational challenges and a significant loss of transfer traffic resulting from the regional conflict.
“The impact is unsurprisingly the most severe in this region, which faces airspace limitations and other operational constraints, resulting in a significant loss of transfer traffic,” the association noted.
In contrast, Africa is forecast to record the strongest passenger traffic growth at 10 per cent in 2026. However, IATA pointed out that the increase comes from a relatively low base compared to other global regions.
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to remain the largest contributor to global passenger growth, with traffic projected to rise by 5.1 per cent and account for more than half of the overall increase in global demand.
Europe’s passenger traffic is forecast to grow by 2.8 per cent, supported partly by rerouted traffic from disrupted Middle Eastern long-haul routes. IATA also noted a growing preference among European travellers for leisure travel and visits to friends and relatives within closer destinations.
Passenger traffic in Latin America is projected to increase by 5 per cent, aided by relatively resilient regional economies. Meanwhile, growth in North America is expected to remain subdued at 0.8 per cent, reflecting the maturity of the market and a slowing US economy, particularly in the domestic travel segment.
Despite the slowdown, IATA said the global aviation industry remains resilient.
“Overall, we expect the 2026 passenger outlook to slow meaningfully but nevertheless remain positive. While growth is weaker and more uneven across regions, the industry continues to expand, highlighting its remarkable adaptability in the face of sudden and severe external shocks and passengers’ need to travel,” the association said.
-ANI
