The BJP decisively defeated the Congress and other opposition parties in the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections, securing victories in both states and forming governments there recently.
The Matrize Survey provided insights into the factors that contributed to the BJP’s significant triumph in these states, despite its relatively lower performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The survey highlighted several reasons, including the enduring influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Congress-led opposition’s failure to pose an effective challenge to the BJP. It also underscored shifts in voter sentiment between the two elections. The Congress’ attempt to capitalize on the narrative of “constitutional changes” failed to make any significant impact during the Assembly elections.
The survey was conducted between November 25, 2024, and December 14, 2024, with a sample size of 76,830 respondents in Maharashtra and 53,647 in Haryana.
PM Modi’s enduring popularity played a pivotal role in the BJP’s victory. Despite the party winning only 240 seats in the Lok Sabha elections this year, he continued to enjoy massive popularity among voters in both Maharashtra and Haryana. The survey revealed that voters in these states maintained unwavering trust in him. Around 55 percent of voters surveyed in Maharashtra and 53 percent in Haryana reported a surge in PM Modi’s popularity, underscoring his strong and decisive leadership image.
The Congress’ failure to sustain its narrative on constitutional changes, spearheaded by Rahul Gandhi during the Lok Sabha elections, emerged as another significant factor. Although the claim gained some traction during the parliamentary elections, it failed to resonate during the Assembly elections. Issues like constitutional amendments, farm laws, and wrestlers’ concerns, which the Congress tried to highlight, were largely dismissed by voters in Maharashtra and Haryana.
Voter perception of Rahul Gandhi’s leadership further contributed to the Congress’ poor performance. He was perceived as disconnected from ground realities and unable to present a credible alternative to PM Modi. This perception was particularly stark in comparison to Modi’s image as a strong and influential leader.
The survey suggested a shift in voter sentiment between the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Many voters in Maharashtra and Haryana, who refrained from voting for the BJP in the parliamentary polls, corrected their decision in the Assembly elections. This shift was attributed to growing confidence in PM Modi’s leadership and the central government’s policies, which voters believed positively impacted their lives. The inability of the opposition to offer a coherent and convincing alternative further solidified the BJP’s appeal.
BJP’s strategic messaging during the Assembly elections significantly influenced voter preferences. The slogan “Ek Hain to Safe Hain” (When united, we are safe) struck a chord with voters, emphasizing stability, national security, and economic growth under PM Modi’s leadership. Conversely, the Congress’ internal struggles and divisive rhetoric alienated voters, highlighting its failure to counter the BJP’s narrative effectively.
In Haryana, a leadership change from Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar to a new set of leaders also contributed to BJP’s success. The survey indicated that 44 percent of respondents viewed the leadership change positively. Additionally, strong local BJP leaders and a well-organized campaign played a critical role in solidifying the party’s base.
The BJP’s focus on local issues and welfare schemes further bolstered its voter support. Initiatives in agriculture, infrastructure, and rural development were well-received, with many voters acknowledging their direct benefits from government schemes.
The Matrize Survey has provided a comprehensive understanding of the BJP’s victories in Maharashtra and Haryana. The enduring popularity of PM Modi, the Congress’ inability to maintain its narrative on constitutional changes, voter correction of past decisions, and the BJP’s focus on effective governance, strategic messaging, and welfare schemes were key factors that contributed to the party’s resounding success.
(ians)