World powers are meeting in Paris on Thursday aiming to raise at least 500 million euros in urgent humanitarian aid for Lebanon and push for a ceasefire, but with the U.S. focused on its own efforts, diplomats said they expect little concrete progress.
France has historical ties with Lebanon and has been working with Washington in trying to secure a ceasefire. But its influence has been limited since Israel launched a large-scale onslaught on Iran-backed Hezbollah in September that has seen thousands displaced and more than 2,000 people killed.
Paris hastily arranged the conference as a means to show it still has clout in its former protectorate, but while 70 delegations and 15 international organisations are represented, few major ministers are attending.
France’s special envoy to Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian warned that if the conflict did not stop there was a risk of civil war.
“If this continues, Lebanon is in danger of death,” he told LCI television.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was visiting the Middle East on a final push for peace before next month’s election, while Saudi Arabia, which has been reluctant to engage in Lebanon, sent a junior minister.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati and key ministers involved in relief efforts were expected to attend, but neither Israel, whose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticised the initiative, nor Iran were invited.
According to France’s foreign ministry the conference aims to raise at least 500 million euros in aid to primarily help the 500,000-1 million displaced. Lebanon says it needs $250 million a month to deal with the crisis.
The delegations will reiterate the need to cease hostilities on the basis of the 2006 U.N. Security Council resolution 1701, which calls for southern Lebanon to be free of any troops or weapons other than those of the Lebanese state.
STRENGTHEN UN, LEBANESE ARMY
To achieve that, they will also seek to ramp up support for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), deemed as the guarantor of internal stability, but also vital to implementing 1701.
“The final objective is to recruit, train and equip 6,000 new LAF units,” an Italian diplomatic source said, adding that Rome would soon organise its own conference focused on this.
Italy has some 1,000 troops as part of the U.N. peacekeeping mission in Lebanon. Diplomats say that once there is a ceasefire the mission will need to be made more robust.
Paris is also pushing Lebanese actors — despite reluctance from some — to move forward on the election of a president to fill a two-year power vacuum before a ceasefire.
Quite what can be achieved on the political front is unclear, diplomats said, although France touts its direct contacts with Hezbollah and Iran as an advantage compared to U.S. mediation efforts.
Coordination between Paris and Washington has been difficult in recent weeks. European and Arab nations are critical that Washington is not calling for an immediate ceasefire and fear the administration will not alter that position before the election on Nov. 5.
“Governments must do everything in their power to end this growing catastrophe and cycle of impunity,” a coalition of 150 non-governmental organisations said in a statement issued ahead of the Paris meeting. “Failure to act now is a choice … a choice that will fail to stop and prevent future atrocities.”
(Reuters)