There’s bromance in the air and it’s between two unlikely pals — Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin. But, it has upset some, including, guess who, Xi Jinping.
The Kim — Putin Bromance is the subject of much discussion and speculation. Kim’s 3 a.m. hug of Putin on the tarmac; gifting him two Pungsan dogs; and Putin in turn presenting Kim with a Russian-make Aurus limousine and taking Kim for a spin in it: Their carefully-choreographed appearances project a sense of camaraderie and bonhomie at a time when the region, and the world, is buffeted by multiple crises.
The friendship between the 40-year-old Supreme Leader of North Korea and 72-year-old Russian leader upsets a delicate balance, a careful equilibrium, which Xi Jinping has sought to cultivate, and maintain, in the region. Specifically, the signing of a new mutual defence treaty between Moscow and Pyongyang is problematic for Beijing at many levels.
For one, it shows that Kim is looking beyond China for political, economic and military support; that Kim has found another patron besides Xi.
Two, the Kim – Putin friendship brings the U.S., South Korea and Japan even closer together militarily and that can only add to, not reduce, China’s anxieties.
Three, Xi would be wary of creating a perception of an alliance among China, Russia and North Korea for fear of drawing in the superpowers into a direct confrontation.
And, four, with ASEAN countries such as the Philippines staring down China in the contested waters between them, Xi runs the risk of losing friends and allies faster than he can say Jack Robinson.
One by one, countries in China’s neighbourhood are putting some distance between them; spinning out of China’s orbit, as it were.
The treaty
On 11 November, Kim ratified the treaty with Russia; two days after Putin did the same. The treaty will come into effect from the date their countries exchange ratification documents.
It’s called the “Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” It was signed in Pyongyang, on 19 June 2024, when Putin visited North Korea. It was Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang in 24 years. The last time he travelled to North Korea was in the year 2000.
North Korea’s Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui travelled to Russia in November and January 2024 and Kim himself visited Russia in September 2023.
Russia – North Korea ties go back many decades. As Putin wrote in a signed article for the Rodong Sinmun newspaper of North Korea: “In August 1945, Soviet soldiers, fighting shoulder to shoulder with Korean patriots, defeated the Kwantung Army, liberated the Korean peninsula from colonisers, and, opened the way for the Korean people to develop independently”.
The Russia – North Korea treaty is similar to an alliance. Putin calls it a breakthrough and Kim in turn says that the treaty represents a watershed in the history of their relations and that it lays down a legal basis to build on their ties.
The preamble of the treaty says that it contributes to ensuring peace and security and stability in the region and the world. It talks about mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, equality and non-interference in each other’s domestic affairs. It also talks about them co-operating globally to oppose Western sanctions and co-ordinating their positions at the United Nations.
In some ways, it’s a win-win proposition for Moscow and Pyongyang. Russia gets weapons and soldiers from North Korea to aid in its conflict with Ukraine and North Korea gets technology and goods from Russia to shore up its defence and economy alike.
The June 2024 treaty builds on the treaties that North Korea signed with the then Soviet Union in July 1961 and another with Russia – the successor state to the erstwhile Soviet Union – in February 2000.
The 1961 document was called the “Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance”. In 2000, it was renamed as the “Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Good Neighbourliness”. The words “Good Neighbourliness” replaced “Mutual Assistance”.
The 1961 Treaty resolved to extend assistance and support to one another in the event of military attack upon either of the Contracting Parties by any state or coalition of states.
Article 1 of the 1961 Treaty read – “Should either of the Contracting parties suffer armed attack by any state or coalition of states and thus find itself in a state of war, the other Contracting Party shall immediately extend military and other assistance with all the means at its disposal”.
The same sentiment makes a comeback in the text of the 2024 Treaty. The treaty contemplates, among other things, mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties.
North Korea and China
Now, North Korea signed a similar Treaty with China in July 1961 – five days after Moscow and Pyongyang signed theirs. The China – North Korea document was called “Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty”. In 2021, North Korea and China agreed to extend it for two decades.
North Korea depends on China for essential goods such as food, clothing, fertiliser, machinery and construction materials. However, the relations seem to have entered a rough patch. North Korea signalled its frustration with China over what it perceives to be a lack of diplomatic and economic support.
In July 2024, North Korea stopped its State T.V. broadcast from a Chinese satellite and started using a Russian one – a move that was viewed as a sign of the waning influence of North Korea’s largest trading partner. In the month of May, North Korea rebuked China by condemning a joint statement issued by China, Japan and South Korea, which committed to denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.
Take a look at some other moments of friction in their relationship.
— Over the past year, Beijing has cracked down on North Korean smuggling and restricted the sale of North Korean seafood in China.
— According to “The Korea Times” newspaper published from South Korea, in July 2024, Beijing demanded that Pyongyang recall tens of thousands of North Korean workers from China so that China could comply with U.N. Security Council Resolution 2937, which called for repatriation of North Korean workers.
— China riled North Korea by joining international sanctions against Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear weapons programmes in 2006.
— Pyongyang, apparently, conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 without consulting Beijing. China claimed that the nuclear tests violated a treaty between them that requires them to consult with each other on all important international questions of common interest.
— Last but not the least, relations between China and North Korea hit a low point in 1992 when China formally established diplomatic ties with South Korea against North Korea’s wishes.
Why it irks China
Some commit the mistake of imagining North Korea as a satrap of China or a vassal state. However, North Korea has shown time and again that it will guard its strategic autonomy and the latest Russia – North Korea treaty is emblematic of just that.
An article written by two South Korean scholars in the “Foreign Affairs” magazine, published from the U.S. says that the proximity between Kim and Putin has “irked” China. Chinese officials fear that Russia’s influence over North Korea is growing at China’s expense. Also, China worries that the U.S. and its allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific will strengthen military co-operation in response to Russia and North Korea’s newfound closeness.
A similar article published by a U.S. think tank, Carnegie Endowment, reads: “Just as in Washington, the prospect of the North Korean leader bolstered by Russia and engaging in even more provocative activities is likely to be a source of concern for China’s leadership. Beijing is wary of strengthening security ties between Tokyo, Seoul and Washington and rejects the concept of the China-Russia-North Korea “northern triangle” for fear of encouraging closer U.S. – Japan — South Korea or “southern triangle” collaboration”.
Yet, despite signs of tension between the two countries, North Korea – China relations have not floundered. The countries have not always seen eye to eye over the past 75 years but their relationship has never come close to splintering. One reason is that nearly all of North Korea’s trade is with China. In 2023, China accounted for 98 per cent of North Korea’s volume of trade. Now, the new treaty between North Korea and Russia does expand trade between them but it does not necessarily reduce Beijing’s leverage over Pyongyang.
The U.S. voices its concern, too
Not just China, even the U.S. has voiced its concern over the burgeoning ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. The U.S. and its allies in the West believe that there are at least 10 thousand North Korean soldiers in Russia today. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskkyy calls it a new page in instability in the world. Many of the North Korean soldiers are deployed in Russia’s Kursk region, which has been partially occupied by Ukraine. Neither Russia nor North Korea has confirmed or denied these claims.
Putin issued a veiled warning to the West when he said that “the Russian Federation does not rule out developing military and technical cooperation with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea” in response to the U.S. and its NATO allies supplying long-range high-precision weapons, F-16 aircraft and other technology-intensive arms and equipment for attacking Russian territory.
However, a U.S. diplomat Bonnie Jenkins has said that Washington, D.C. does not have anything definitive in terms of nuclear technology going from Russia to North Korea but it does worry about the developing relationship between the two countries.
In conclusion
Clearly, Xi Jinping is sitting on the horns of a dilemma.
Neither can he push North Korea so much that Kim turns on him or gets closer to Russia or even the U.S. nor can he allow Kim’s actions or provocations to increase the military cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, Japan and the Philippines – something China perceives as a threat to its own security.
A seventh nuclear test by North Korea will most definitely put a lot of strain on China’s ties with North Korea.
North Korea conducted its sixth and last nuclear test in 2017.
Will Kim go for another?
All bets are off if he does.
Ramesh Ramachandran (Senior consulting editor, DDIndia)